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2010年6月30日

[News] BASF to Outpace Expected 5% Annual Growth in Plastics Market

June 22, 2010, 5:07 AM EDTBy Richard Weiss
June 22 (Bloomberg) --


BASF SE, the world’s biggest chemical company, said it plans to outpace the expected 5 percent annual growth in the global plastics market by boosting operations in Asia.
BASF’s plastics division will report higher sales and a “significant” improvement in earnings in 2010, board member Martin Brudermueller reiterated at a press conference in Frankenthal, Germany, today. Demand in Asia will grow at 6 percent a year through 2015, he said.

Brudermueller said BASF will continue to reduce overcapacity in standard plastics by shedding sites and activities. The German chemical maker, which is in the throes of divesting a styrene operation, is moving toward more specialty plastics that now account for one-half of plastic deliveries.

Sales at BASF’s plastics segment fell 22 percent last year, the second consecutive decline, weighed down by both lower volumes and a 15 percent slide in prices. Operating profit rose 2.7 percent to 554 million euros ($682 million), after collapsing by 54 percent the prior year.

Investment will be focused on the Asian region, Brudermueller said.
BASF supplies polyurethanes, soft and solid foams used as insulation material and for packaging, as well as polyamides, widely used for synthetic fibers such as nylon in the textiles industry.
--Editors: Andrew Noel

[News] BASF entes LGF-PA market, and offers simo software for this material By Matt Defosse

Published: June 22nd, 2010

During its pre-K 2010 press conference today (June 22) in Frankenthal, Germany, officials at plastics and additives supplier BASF announced the company's entry into the market for long-glass-fiber-reinforced grades of polyamide. Not only will the material be offered, but the company also has upgraded the capabilities of its proprietary Ultrasim software to permit simulation of components made with these materials.

According to BASF this will be the first such software for long-glass-fiber-reinforced polyamide (LGF-PA) compounds. Andreas Wollny, marketing manager for the supplier's Ultramid brand of specialty polyamides (PA), reckons these new materials, coupled with the supplier's assistance to processors through its simulation software, should enable LGF-PA to make further inroads into metal replacement in automotive applications as well as in other appliacations such as power tools, appliances, and sporting goods.

The new LGF-PA grades will be marketed under the name Ultramid Structure LF. The company is starting with a small range of PA 6 and PA 66 grades with glass fiber levels between 40%-60% as well as various types of stabilization, with the plan to expand the portfolio in the future.

The supplier has been producing the material on a pilot plant at its Ludwigshafen, Germany headquarters for about two years, said Wollny, and now plans to build a commercial line with 2000 tonnes/yr capacity. BASF chose pultrusion to make the plastic strands containing endless glass fibers. In a second step, these strands are cut to a pellet length of 12 mm. A processor can then process the granules on a conventional injection molding machine, with fibers in finished parts forming a three-dimensional fiber network with fiber lengths of 3-6 mm.

In addition to the new material, the supplier has built on its established Ultrasim simulation software so that processors of the LGF-PA can also make use of this software top predict parts' performance. An example, said Wollny, is a crash absorber made of Ultramid Structure LF developed in-house: Its controlled failure upon impact is predicted and mapped precisely by the software. Experiment and simulation match closely, so that—as in the case of short-glass-fiber-reinforced materials—BASF will be able to assist with component design for the new product group. The company believes that to now this service is not yet available in the LGF-PA market in this comprehensive form.

[News] New flame-retardant grades for molding light-colored E/E products

By Matt Defosse
Published: June 24th, 2010

New grades of halogen-free flame-retardant polyamides (PA) and polybutylene terephthalates (PBT) are available in light natural colors—no red phosphorous here—so that processors of these can process electrical components in all color tones.

Plastics and additives supplier BASF introduced the new grades as part of is pre-K 2010 tradeshow press event this week in Frankenthal, Germany. The new grades will be part of new product lines called Ultramid FRee (polyamide-based) and Ultradur FRee (for the PBT-based compounds). FRee stands for Flame Retardant and Electrical/Electronic (E/E)

At the K show, which begins October 27 in Düsseldorf, Germany, BASF will introduce the first four new grades: Ultramid FRee A3U40 G5, a polyamide (PA) 66-based product that satisfies the requirements of IEC 60335-1, the newest version of the safety standard for household appliances, and Ultramid FRee B3U31 G4, a PA 6 compound tailored specifically to the requirement of circuit breakers.

The PBT line from BASF is being expanded with the addition of Ultradur FRee B4440 G5 and B4450 G5. Both products satisfy the requirements of UL94's flame retardant class V0, with the former earning the highest V0 rating according to UL 94 even at a wall thickness of just 0.4 millimeters. The latter of these is characterized by high tracking resistance, according to BASF, as measured by its Comparative Tracking Index (CTI). Its CTI of 600 makes it possible for component designers to reduce the spacing between contacts and thus shrink the housing and save material.

BASF officials would not give away how they realized improved levels of flame retardance with no halogens and also without reaching for red phosphorus, which is an outstanding halogen-free flame retardant but has a pronounced dark natural color that carries over into the flame retardant component, making it nigh on impossible to mold light-colored parts with this additive. Alternatives to red phosphorus such as organic nitrogen or phosphorus compounds are relatively expensive, but BASF officials said their new compounds combine high performance and relatively low cost.

BASF reckons demand for these new Free-brand plastics has considerable opportunities for growth. In 2009, about 280,000 tons of flame-retardant polyamides and polybutylene terephthalates were sold. Though almost half of the flame-retardant polyamides are halogen-free materials, less than five percent of PBTs are. At an estimated 6-10% per year, the demand growth rate for halogen-free flame-retardant engineering plastics is considerably higher than that of flame-retardant plastics overall, reported BASF. PBT, it says, is probably at the upper end of this range, since the demand for halogen-free products is especially high here.

In related news from the pre-K press conference, John Frijns, Sr. VP plastic additives Europe/EAWA at BASF, in an interview with MPW, said that the integration of Ciba's additives business into BASF went well, with both suppliers' portfolios merging well. Customers—resin suppliers, compounders and also some processors—will benefit from even swifter rates of innovation at the newly merged business, he predicted. The company holds industry-leading positions in light stabilizers, antioxidants and pigments, he said, with solid positions in halogen-free flame retardants and polymer modifiers. He said interest in non-halogenated flame retardants is high enough that the company is focusing further development efforts on these. —Matt Defosse

[News] On the rise: Packaging that makes your life easier

By Clare Goldsberry
Published: June 25th, 2010

Protective packaging is hot, as more and more people shop online and shipping increases in both developing and developed regions of the globe. A Freedonia Group report says that world demand for protective packaging is projected to increase 7.8% per year to $22.2 billion in 2014, representing a "notable acceleration" from the 2004-2009 period. Increased requirements for cost-effective packaging used in the protection of goods from shock, vibration, abrasion, and other damaging effects of shipping and handling will result in gains in this market.

Value gains will also be boosted by the growing presence of environmentally friendly products-such as those made from recycled or biodegradable materials-which tend to be more costly than their conventional counterparts, noted Freedonia, a Cleveland, OH-based industry market research firm. However, such gains will stem from a low base, and the importance of price in the purchasing decisions of most packaging users will moderate demand for green products to some extent.

Foamed plastic (ESP) protective packaging will remain the largest product type by a wide margin. However, the growing emphasis on packaging sustainability-especially in developed countries with more established environmental regulations-will constrain opportunities for conventional foamed plastic protective packaging to some extent. Air pillows and bubble packaging will continue to experience the fastest gains, according to The Freedonia Group.

While the United States is by far the world's largest user of protective packaging, the most rapid increases will occur in developing regions including Asia/Pacific, Central and South America, and Africa/Mideast regions, which will "all outpace the global average."

In another packaging arena, demand for lawn, garden, and agricultural packaging is forecast to increase 1.8% per year through 2013 to $1.7 billion, which is a decline from the sharp increases of the 2003-2008 period. Gains in these markets will be "bolstered by the continuing need for packaging that can provide a means of differentiating products which are primarily commodity in nature," said Freedonia's report on these market segments.

Other drivers in these markets will be demand from consumers for convenient, user-friendly packaging, a factor that will stimulate sales of reclosable pouches, dispensing closures, and other value-added products. Stand-up pouches will post the fastest gains among all lawn, garden, and agricultural packaging due to their superior visual appeal, reclosability, and barrier properties. Bags and sacks will continue to be the leading product type through 2013, with demand advancing 1.5% per year to slightly more than $880 million.

Plastic packaging will see the biggest advances due to cost advantages over paper. Plastic container demand is projected to increase 1.9% annually through 2013, to just more than $380 million, helped by performance advantages such as design flexibility, light weight, water and chemical resistance, and suitability for a variety of closures, said The Freedonia Group.—Clare Goldsberry

[News] Solvay, Arkema part ways on PVC plants

By Matt Defosse
Published: June 25th, 2010

The two plastics and chemicals suppliers have decided to end the production ventures concerning three plants they had jointly owned. EHT result will be that Solvay takes control of one site and Arkema now can call two of them its own.

Solvay owns 75% of SolVin, its polyvinyl chloride (PVC) joint venture with BASF. SolVin and Arkema have decided to each buy back the minority cross-holdings in the PVC production joint ventures they operate.

The companies in question are VinylFos, in which SolVin has a stake of 21%, VinylBerre (35%) and Vinilis (65%). Effective July 1, 2010, Vinilis (Martorell, Spain) and its yearly capacity of 270,000 tonnes of PVC welcomes under direct control of SolVin.

The other two companies, both in France, go to Arkema. Terms of the agreement were not revealed.

[News] New masterbatches add color to compostable plastics

By MPW Staff
Published: June 28th, 2010

New masterbatches from Clariant (Muttenz, Switzerland) have been formulated for use in biopolymer applications requiring compliance with European and U.S. standards governing compostability and ecotoxicity, including the harmonized EN 13432:2000 standard. Because they incorporate conventional (non-natural) additives and pigments, the new masterbatches are said by the supplier to be more economical and more process- and light-stable than "natural" products, and they bring a broader choice of colors and additive functionality to bioplastic products and packaging.

More than 80 pigments are expected to be available, which will allow a large number color masterbatches to be offered under the Clariant Renol-compostable brand name. CESA-compostable additive masterbatches will include UV-stabilizer and antioxidant packages, with more additives currently pending review.

Testing of the ingredients in the masterbatches was completed in the independent laboratories of OWS nv (Gent, Belgium). There, it was determined the materials comply with the EN 13432:2000 standard for heavy-metal content and plant-toxicity.

Clariant also is in the final stages of product evaluation for the highly desirable "OK compost" certification issued by AIB Vinçotte International (Vilvoorde, Belgium). The compostable products made at the Clariant facility in Sant Andreu de la Barca, Spain (near Barcelona) are expected to be certified in July. A plant in Pogliano Milanese, Italy, which already holds an "OK compost" certificate for a black masterbatch used mainly in agricultural film, will soon obtain the Vinçotte approval stamp for the whole range of new eco-friendly masterbatches it manufactures.

Vinçotte is an independent testing organization that has developed certification programs for compostable and bio-based products.

Any product featuring the "OK compost" logo can be assumed to comply with the requirements of the EU Packaging Directive (94/62/EEC), which seeks to limit packaging waste. The "OK compost" certificate guarantees that only colorants and additives that pass testing for ecotoxicity are added to the biopolymer carrier resin.

All-natural color and additive masterbatches made entirely from renewable resources have been available for a few years, but color choices are limited and light and process stability can be an issue in certain applications. These new compostable additives and masterbatches are said to overcome those limitations without changing the compostability of products made of the bio-based resins.

[News] TPE North American resin pricing, June 21-25: PE and PP steady; June PE contracts in dispute

By PlasticsToday Staff
Published: June 29th, 2010

Overview: The spot commodity resin markets showed good trading activity last week, with prices holding steady for both polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP). Plastics spot-trading platform The Plastics Exchange (TPE) reports that resins were flat in spite of the spot monomer markets trading higher, with short-term ethylene supplies affected by a recently reported cracker outage. PP contracts have followed polymer-grade propylene (PGP) monomer downward, settling $0.08/lb lower in June. TPE reports that June PE contract negotiations remain contentious, and are not settled at this time.

Producers had suggested lowering high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) prices by $0.04/lb, with low-density polyethylene (LDPE) just $0.02/lb lower. On average, processors are looking for a $0.06/lb decrease.

TPE CEO Michael Greenberg said that a major index, on which many resin contracts are based, estimated that in June, HDPE and LLDPE prices will be $0.06/lb lower while LDPE prices should come down $0.04/lb.

Ethylene spot prices moved higher last week in active trading, fueled by a fresh cracker outage. The front end of the market was stronger than the deferred months, with ethylene for June delivery beginning about a penny lower at $0.31/lb, but after several more trades, reaching above $0.34/lb last Tuesday. Spot ethylene for July delivery was active in the latter part of the week, trading up to $0.355/lb by last Friday, which was more than a nickel higher than the previous week.

Propylene spot prices continued to bounce back, adding another $0.03/lb last week. Refinery grade propylene (RGP) for both June and July delivery traded actively throughout the week at $0.43/lb. Spot PGP remains illiquid and once again no trades were consummated last week. The most recently reported PGP transaction was earlier in the month at $0.505/lb for August delivery. June PGP monomer contracts settled down $0.08/lb to $0.555/lb.

Energy markets moved in opposite directions last week, with crude oil for August delivery seeing a modest gain of $0.60/bbl, to close at $78.86/bbl, while August natural gas dropped back below the $5/mmBtu threshold to end the week at $4.908/mmBtu. That represented a loss of $0.141/mmBtu, and helped expand the crude oil:natural gas price ratio to 16:1.

Greenberg commented on the rollercoaster first half of 2010 for resin prices, noting that PP contracts were as much as $0.22/lb higher through April and have now given back $0.20/lb. PE contracts, meanwhile, added $0.18/lb during the first quarter of 2010 and are still holding on to some gains (between $0.06-$0.08/lb), depending how June contracts settle.

Polyethylene (PE) spot prices stalled their slide last week, with prices holding steady across the board and supply starting to dry up. Spot ethylene monomer prices were about $0.03/lb higher, reacting to a fresh cracker outage. June PE contracts remain unsettled, with suggested decreases ranging from $0.02 to $0.08/lb.

Contract PE prices increased $0.18/lb during the first quarter of 2010, while the ethylene net transaction price (NTP) was up $0.125/lb. Given that, Greenberg points out that producers were able to increase contract production margins by $0.055/lb during the first three months of 2010. During April and May, ethylene's NTP was down $0.1075/lb, while PE contracts slid just $0.06/lb, so that by the end of May, PE margins had expanded by slightly more than a dime during 2010.

The spot side of the business did not fare so well, according to TPE. Spot ethylene prices jumped $0.38/lb, peaking at $0.74/lb in early-mid April, as they were driven by a series of planned and unexpected cracker outages. During the same period, spot PE topped out with a gain of only $0.18/lb, hence a $0.20/lb squeeze in spot PE production margins on the way up. However, since the peak, spot ethylene prices have dropped $0.40/lb, while average spot PE prices are down just $0.15/lb. "Although it was a rough first quarter," Greenberg said, "PE producers have recouped the spot margin loss and have now actually expanded spot margins by $0.05/lb for the year."

Producers leaned on the unusually strong export market throughout 2009, but export sales have slowed dramatically thus far in 2010. According to American Chemistry Council (ACC) data, exports ran at an average monthly clip of 860 million lb during the last half of 2009. Through the first 5 months of 2010, however, they've only averaged 645 million lb/month, including an average of only 557 million lb for April and May.

Sharply higher production costs shut down a significant part of the export arbitrage to Asia and India, which comprised the majority of exports. According to ACC data, producers entered 2010 with 2.7 billion lb of PE inventory on hand, which was about the average of 2009, but down 17% from 2008. PE inventories began to rise in March 2010, amid weak exports, and expanded to more than 3.1 billion lb by the end of May: their highest level in 18 months. "With all the extra supply, one might ask, 'Where is all the resin?'" Greenberg said, before adding that is indeed a good question.

Greenberg speculated that given the volatile production economics, producers seem to have limited their manufacture of the non-pure commodities and apparently only made surplus quantities of easily exportable material. Some commodity grades including HDPE blowmolding and LLDPE butene, which are two very typical export resins, are plentiful, but most other grades are still scarcely supplied. HDPE injection is hard to come by and LDPE film (and injection), which has also suffered production issues, is barely seen at all in the spot market.

In terms of June contracts, producers remain firm to lower LDPE by $0.02/lb and HDPE/LLDPE by $0.04/lb, while processors have been pushing a $0.06-$0.08/lb decrease. Word has spread that at least one producer met the $0.06/lb decrease, but others have yet to meet that competitive offer. "Whatever the June outcome," Greenberg said, "either $0.02-$0.04/lb or $0.04-$0.06/lb, there is always July to make up the difference."

Polypropylene (PP) spot prices were steady last week, holding on to the penny gain from the week prior. While spot PP supplies remain high, they are dwindling into month end. Propylene monomer prices continue to recover, reinforcing the newfound stability seen in the resin market. June PP contracts were down $0.08/lb, which was inline with the decline in PGP contracts.

Spot PP prices rallied $0.26/lb during 2010 before peaking in early-mid April and have since given back the gains in their entirety. The market popped back $0.01/lb from its low and remains priced at this level. Some market participants had anticipated a steeper decline in prices and were speculating that another $0.06-$0.10/lb chunk could come out of the contract market in July. However, now that the propylene market has found support, resin buyers are again "picking away" at the spot PP supply, according to Greenberg, slowing adding to their inventories.

The export market saw a small pickup in demand, perhaps made more evident by the lack of trader inventory, which had been largely liquidated. Exports in June were 152 million lb, up 55% from the previous monthly average of 2010. At this level, however, they're still down 17.5% from 2009's average. Producer inventories have grown, however, expanding some 16% since the beginning of the year to 1.65 billion lb. That's their highest level in 18 months. According to the ACC, however, they are still 7.5% below the 2008 average when the industry just generally kept more inventory on hand.

Domestic demand is showing some signs of life, with U.S. PP sales up 5.5% in May over April. They are still down a 17% from the monthly sales levels seen even few years back, however. If there is relief in PP pricing, will the demand destruction caused by PP nearing $1.00/lb be repaired? "The past few hurricane seasons and periodic runaway monomer costs, drove PP prices sharply higher," Greenberg said, "and at the same time drove many processors out of business. Automotive demand is still suffering and many of the household storage products have been priced off the shelf. However, now that resin prices have returned to a more palatable level, can long-tem demand return?"

PP contracts are $0.08/lb lower in June after losing $0.12/lb in May, so that the market is only $0.02/lb higher for the year. Some thought that July PP contracts would more than erase the remaining 2010 increase and see net lower prices for the year, but now that RGP monomer has rebounded to $0.43/lb for both June and July deliveries, perhaps the last $0.02/lb might be all there is relieved in July. "With turbulent energy and monomer markets at hand, things can change quickly," Greenberg warned, "not to mention that Alex just became the first named Gulf storm of the season, threatening hurricane status in the coming days."

[News] ECFA早收產品 2013年降為零關稅

【聯合報╱記者朱婉寧/台北報導】
2010.06.25 04:00 am

兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)第一批減免關稅早收清單昨天敲定,雙方貨品將分兩年三階段降稅,若ECFA明年元旦生效,雙方早收清單貨品將在二○一三年元旦全降為零關稅。

至於明年元旦第一波降稅的產品,計有七十三項,占清單所有項數的百分之十三點四,包括LCD玻璃與紗產品。

經濟部官員說,美商康寧與日商旭硝子生產的LCD面板玻璃,輸往大陸即可享有零關稅優惠,對於吸引外商來台投資具有加分效果。

另外,我國的強項自行車整車及零組件也在早收清單之中,預計將在二○一三年降到零關稅。不過,我方力爭的聚氯乙烯(PVC)、聚乙烯(PE)、工程塑膠(ABS)及加工中心工具機等,最後並未成功列入;汽車整車也因時間問題而未列入,成為遺珠之憾。

【記者許佳佳、邱展光/台北報導】第五次江陳會預備性磋商昨天舉行,入列的石化產品比預期的多了一些,但大陸仍未將PVC、PE、ABS等塑化原料納入早收清單,石化業對結果感到仍不滿意。

石化公會表示,銷往中國大陸最大量的五大通用塑膠、三大合成纖維原料都沒有納入,其他開放降稅的項目「根本無濟於事」。

石化業指出,依照這次列入早收清單的項目,估計對台灣的正面影響為廿六點五億美元;但未列入早收清單的產品,估計造成的衝擊可達六十五億美元。業者再度對大陸政府呼籲,只要求一個等同東協國家的關稅,絕不放棄爭取納入第二波清單。

【2010/06/25 聯合報】@ http://udn.com/

[News] 《熱門族群》躋身ECFA早收概念,台塑化錢景俏

2010-06-27 10:37 時報資訊 【時報-台北電】

 ECFA早收清單出爐,受惠標的成盤面追蹤焦點。分析師表示,目前PVC、SM、PE等部分塑化產品利差壓縮明顯,短線推薦標的以兼顧ECFA受惠及基本面支撐族群為宜。其中,台塑化(6505)因全球油品交易策略靈活,航空燃油、潤滑油及丙烯列早收清單,有利開拓新市場商機,表現頗受期待。

 此外,PP、PS、PC、AA對台塑(1301)、台化(1326)、榮化(1704)及臺達化(1309)增添營運利多,搭配台塑、台化有化學品、芳香烴一貫廠佈局優勢,營運效益更上層樓。

 分析師指出,近期中國PVC需求受打房影響而趨緩,加上中國市場即處於供過於求,而PE也因中東、大陸新增產能大幅開出,壓抑行情波動,未列早收清單衝擊不致過大。

 反倒是,台塑、台化合計台灣PP年產91萬噸,榮化台灣也有40萬噸PP,而台塑、台化各有AA及PC、PS等營運利多加持,受惠綜效將優於榮化。PS生產廠有台化、台達化、奇美三家,總產能為76萬公噸;台達化PS營收比約35%,搭配大陸ABS廠運作及籌碼條件,表現空間靈活可期。

 因應下半年中東、大陸大量乙烯及PE、PP新增產能壓力,台塑改以提振PVC、化學品推升力道,增添成長動能。其中,AN、MMA及ECH等化學品因今年全球需求年增3至6%,加上供給趨緊,動帶行情、價差高檔波動,台塑化學品年度銷量約年增8至16.7%。

 台達化目前正評估對天津EPS(發泡級PS)廠去瓶頸化工程,若確定實行,最快今年底可完成,屆時年產量可由10萬噸提昇至13萬噸。另外,對於林園ABS廠亦有同樣的去瓶頸想法,但表示因ABS廠去瓶頸工程投資較高,約10億元,目前還處於計畫階段,沒有執行的時間表。台達化認為,ABS銷售對象主要為中國地區之來料加工廠。受惠家電下鄉等政策延續,ABS產品末端需求力道仍在,預估下游庫存去化陸續接近尾聲,ABS買盤可望逐步回溫。

(新聞來源:工商時報─記者彭暄貽/台北報導)

[News] 石化原料外銷報價 上揚

【經濟日報╱記者邱展光/台北報導】
2010.06.25 04:37 am

中國大陸華南大雨成災後復建需求,相關石化廠預料,7月的五大泛用塑膠、四大化纖原料價格行情會有較明顯的反彈,終結來連續八周下挫的窘境。

一位石化廠大老說,華南水患復建的訂單,預估7月起將漸漸浮現;難得出現的需求,廠商將適時調整外銷報價因應。至於,幅度多少,業者預估,可能會每公噸小漲10至30美元,測試一下市場的水溫。

石化廠商強調,華南水災嚴重,復建需求最大的將是五大泛用塑膠。

例如,被水沖毀的房子重建或重修,會使用大量的建築材料,塑膠桶等製品沒有了,也必須添購,家電、電子產品泡水、不能使用了,就必須再買。

上述產品都使用到大量的五大泛用塑膠;尤其是台塑(1301)、華夏(1305)、大洋(1321)生產的聚氯乙烯(PVC),台塑、台化(1326)、李長榮(1704)生產的聚丙烯(PP),台化、台達化(1309)、國喬(1312)、奇美等生產的丙烯腈-丁二烯-苯乙烯共聚合物(ABS)、聚苯乙烯(PS)更是大宗。

中油石化事業部主管強調,由目前乙烯現貨價格穩定於每公噸910美元附近有撐,讓原本觀望的買單出籠,也印證遠東區三種聚乙烯(PE)現貨報價也已經持穩,ABS與PS上游原料苯乙烯單體(SM)價更逆勢上揚,每公噸小漲3美元,金額雖少,卻是項喜訊。

相關石化廠強調,全球的石化基本原料、五大泛用塑膠、四大化纖原料因需求疲弱而走滑,只有大陸需求一枝獨秀,應與華南水患災情嚴重,復建的需求龐大有關,近期貿易商已開始詢價、下訂單。

[News] 認列庫存跌價 台達化第二季獲利下滑

精實新聞 2010-06-29 07:40:53 記者 賴淙民 報導

PS(聚苯乙烯)、ABS(丙烯腈/丁二烯/苯乙烯共聚物)原料SM(苯乙烯)價格走軟,高價庫存將認列跌價損失,且中國EPS(發泡級PS)價格劇跌,中國中山廠出現虧損,法人估計,台達化(1309)第二季獲利較第一季衰退73%;惟該公司則表示,苯價應已探底,第三季表現應可回昇。

時序進入歐美保溫建材旺季,台達化台灣廠產能利用率皆達滿載,出貨較第一季增加,但PS、ABS原料SM價格走軟,高價庫存面臨跌價損失,法人估計毛利率較第一季下滑3.57個百分點。

另外,中國EPS價格劇跌,大陸中山EPS廠因原料需進口,成本受國際價格影響,無法轉嫁至成品上,第二季呈現虧損;台達化大陸天津EPS廠,因中國北方建材需求強烈且原料內購,表現尚可。

台達化表示,因原料價格走軟,庫存跌價損失,中山廠虧損,第二季獲利將較第一季來遜色。法人估計,台達化第二季來自中國的收益將較第一季萎縮,貢獻獲利將由第一季的3600 萬元下滑至1000 萬元,整體來看,台達化第二季稅後EPS 為0.12 元。

第三季之展望,台達化表示目前苯價應已探底等待反彈,未來將不需認列存貨跌價損失,且時序進入傳統旺季,法人推估,第三季EPS應可回升至0.46元。

[News] 石化業 讓利不多 台塑最賺

【經濟日報╱記者邱展光/台北報導】2010.06.25 04:00 am

ECFA早收清單出爐,入列的石化產品比預期稍多。石化業指出,依照這次列入早收清單的項目,估計對台灣的正面影響為26.5億美元,但未列入早收清單的產品,估計造成的衝擊可達65億美元。

依此開放清單來看,台塑企業旗下台塑、南亞、台化、台塑化受惠最多,但是台塑集團最想開放的項目,卻未被列入。

列入早收清單中的石化基本原料有航空燃油、潤滑油、丙烯等,受惠者是中油、台塑化。

中間原料有氯乙烯單體(VCM)、二甲苯、異丙醇(IPA),受惠的業者是台塑、台氯、台化、榮化中油。

塑膠原料中有聚丙烯(PP)、聚苯乙烯(PS)、聚碳酸酯(PC)、及丙烯酸酯(AA)等,受惠業者是台塑、台化、榮化、台達化、國喬、奇美實業。

另外,還有碳煙、工程塑膠等,受惠的廠商是中橡、大連等。

台灣區石化公會強調,石化產品早收清單,從最先傳出的PP,再擴增到其他塑膠原料、塑膠中間產品及石化上游原料等,品項似乎增加了很多,其實讓利規模不是很多。因為,大陸所讓出來的石化產品,占台灣所有石化產品的比例不高。

台灣區石化公會指出,台灣最大宗的塑膠原料是聚乙烯(PE)、聚氯乙烯(PVC)、丙烯月青-丁二烯-苯乙烯共聚合物(ABS),光是台塑PVC年產能就達130萬公噸,奇美的ABS也高達100萬公噸。但是,列入早收的PP,台塑、台化及榮化總年產能僅130萬公噸,PS生產廠有台化、台達化、奇美三家,總產能為76萬公噸。

但是,列入早收的石化中間原料中,卻出現了製造PVC的上游原料VCM。

台塑的VCM年產能僅次於日本信越,高居全球第二位,其年產能158萬公噸。除了供台灣內需使用外,還可運到大陸寧波石化區,供應給台塑年產40萬公噸的PVC廠用。因此,VCM列入早收,獲利最大的是台塑。

2010年6月29日

[News] 台苯深化SM本業 強化轉投資獲利



2010-06-24 01:16 工商時報 彭暄貽 

台苯(1310)董監改選出爐,未來營運發展頗受關注。總經理焦治生表示,雖然今年SM受制成本壓力,及新增產能威脅,營運挑戰高,在經營主導權鞏固後,未來將加強SM、特用化學的耕耘、開發,並針對集團旗下轉投資事業進行10大工作目標的改革計畫,以期提振轉投資事業獲利、規模水準。

 焦治生說,這次股東會通過1.1億股額度的私募案,每股暫定11.56元,除了可充實資本外,也因有股權轉讓限制,有利引進長期穩健的合作伙伴,強化營運主導權。以下為訪談摘要:

 問:董監規劃名單想法為何?

 答:這次公司派規劃的8席董事、3席監察人名單主要兼容資方持股及經營團對穩健理念。雖然董事席次落掉1席,由幸福人壽支持的富翔開發出任,但也或可藉此強化公司治理監督,增加多元性的經營理念。

 問:新經營團隊對於台苯集團未來經營方向有何想法?

 答:未來除了啟動轉投資事業的提振改革方案外,持續深化SM本業發展,延伸石化週邊產品佈局,加強研發電子業所需之特用化學,如鍍膜專利權等,都是未來努力方向。尤其,ECFA簽署在即,台苯將會藉此機會積極加強大陸市場的開拓。

 問:下半年公司營運看法?

 答:近期因油價帶動原料價格下滑,SM在市場供給過剩缺乏推動力量,加上大陸鎮海煉化62萬噸SM工廠6月投產,加上伊朗石化裝置恢復重啟,已經有貨物重新補充到市場,對SM的行情造成壓抑。所幸,6月SM成本壓力已有舒緩,供需也轉趨穩健,預期短線價格呈現窄幅盤整。

 下游PS、ABS及EPS開工率雖有小幅下滑,但因SM需求穩定,大陸庫存普遍降至低位,低價出貨可能性減少,市場以出現有行無市狀態,有利營運連動好轉。

[News]《塑膠股》AE、SAP助威,台塑陸廠大賺

2010-06-24 08:37 時報資訊 【時報-台北電】

 景氣復甦,台塑(1301)旗下5家大陸寧波子公司營運動能加速推進;包括40萬公噸的PVC、23萬公噸的AE、45萬噸的PP及3萬噸的SAP廠,每年約可挹注480億元營收。伴隨大陸AE需求可望延續每年10%以上成長,加上SAP今年需求年增6%至8%;法人推估,台塑今年大陸廠營運可望續揚20%。

 受惠大陸擴大內需政策拉抬,台塑大陸廠運作績效發揮,旗下PVC廠年產能已由30萬噸提高為40萬噸,配合SAP(高吸水性樹酯)、AE(丙烯酸脂)及PP營運悉數轉虧為盈;去年合計營收台幣312.1億元,稅前盈餘貢獻29.3億元。台塑表示,大陸加工產業、建築工業持續推進,連動拉抬由AE轉製成的各種黏膠樹脂、塗料、防水膠及高吸水性樹脂等需求。今年大陸AE產能擴建稍停歇,維持111萬噸規模,而大陸AE需求可望延續每年10%以上成長,供需穩健發展。

 台塑認為,今年全球AE年產能約520萬噸,需求達460萬噸,產能利用率約88%,呈現供需相對平衡狀態。配合內部對大陸及印度、中東、土耳其及巴西等市場聯袂推進,表現穩健可期。(新聞來源:工商時報─記者彭暄貽/台北報導)

[News]《塑膠股》台塑上半年獲利超乎預期,李志村:下半年能見度不明

2010-06-26 13:57 時報資訊 【時報-台北電】

 ECFA早收清單不如預期、中東新增產能衝擊,石化營運受關注,台塑(1301)董事長李志村表示,上半年獲利超乎預期,但各國政府刺激消費機制退場,油價波動加劇,加上新增產能干擾,下半年營運能見度不明。惟台塑將啟動大陸寧波擴產,搶攻內需商機,延續收益動能。
  李志村說,PE、PVC雖未納入早收清單,但因營收比約14%、16%,獲利貢獻比各約7%,PE今年首季收益貢獻比更縮減至3%,營運衝擊不致過大。台塑也將透過開拓中東、新興市場佈局,增添鋼鐵等多元佈局,維持獲利動能。

  關於人民幣升值趨勢,李志村認為,過去日本在美國的「日本第一」慫恿下,讓日圓升值,結果一升值就快完蛋,影響日本至今20年。如今中國看苗頭不對,不會讓人民幣那麼快升值,應採緩升走勢。

  台塑昨(25)日股東會受制環保團體抗議活動,及環保人士以股東身分接力發言,表達對台塑高雄仁武廠、六輕五期擴建的諸多質疑,在李志村耐心回答下,議事從下午2點進行到4點10分,最終由主席以環保議題討論過多,直接宣布散會結束,創台塑史上股東會召開時間最長首例。

  李志村指出,ECFA石化早收清單,台塑集團不敢說不滿意,但勉強可接受。雖然想要的PVC、PE、PTA沒有納入,但PP、PS、PX都納入。近期PVC利差不好,但大陸進入夏季將實施限電,對電石法PVC生產廠商有壓抑效果,有助PVC價格支撐。

  李志村認為,今年全球乙烯需求面僅約增加450萬噸,新增產能約1100萬噸,但能否順利開出還不知道;尤其,中東天然氣供應不足及設備問題,乙烯廠開工率不高,加上歐美老舊乙烯廠持續關廠,乙烯的壓力不大,反倒是對PE壓抑較大。

  李志村說,人民幣升值對台塑影響有好有壞,好處是中國民眾的國民所得提高,會擴大內銷市場,壞處是會減少出口競爭力。最後是好是壞,現在還不曉得。 (新聞來源:工商時報─記者彭暄貽/台北報導)

2010年6月28日

[News]《化工股》PP納ECFA早收,榮化2-3年內將提高PP產能5成

2010-06-29 12:57 時報資訊 【時報記者何美如台北報導】

 榮化(1704)董事長李謀偉今日表示,ECFA的簽訂對榮化具正面幫助,根據他所了解,PP(聚丙烯)有二項產品納入早收清單,明年應可看到實質貢獻。由於大陸的PP自給率仍不足,每年缺口超過5百萬噸,李謀偉把握ECFA的正面效益,未來2-3年內,要透過去瓶頸提高PP五成的產能,目標年產能要達60萬噸。
李謀偉會後表示,榮化的PP走利基型產品,根據他瞭解,二項PP產品納入ECFA早收清單,榮化是受惠的,不過今日下午才正式簽約,屆時才能瞭解稅率的調降細則,估計明年才能看到效益。未來要透過去瓶頸提高50%的產能,目標是在2-3年內,分次將產能由目前的40萬噸提高至60萬噸。

李謀偉說,這一年多來,因新加坡PP業者享零關稅,台灣關稅要6.5%,被他們打的「淅瀝嘩啦」,泰國等東協成員明年未來都免關稅,影響很大。台灣不能把自己排除於國際社會,降關稅只是要和其他競爭對手站在同一起跑點競爭,他認為,政府的策略是正確的。

中國大陸的PP產能也同樣可賣到台灣,他說,大陸的PP自給率不足,幾乎沒有外銷,且台灣廠商的品質好,國內下游業者已習慣使用品質較佳的產品,相信榮化具競爭力。榮化表示,中國大陸每年市場需求超過一千萬噸,每年進口量超過5百萬噸,需求缺口仍大。

[News]《橡膠股》高股息殖利率,買盤進駐臺橡

2010-06-27 13:57 時報資訊 【時報-台北電】

臺橡(2103)因第3季丁二烯等成本壓力趨緩,而橡膠原料產品價格持平或小幅調漲,配合高股息殖利率條件,吸引買盤進駐;上周五以45.75元收盤,成交張數1,978張,比前一交易日增加66%。
 臺橡短線、中長線量能偏多,股價壓力46.29元,支撐44.05元。三大法人近5日買超臺橡1,294張,其中,自營商買超2,112張。

 臺橡目前BR台灣大陸合計年產能10.5萬噸,SBR兩岸產能達30萬噸;尤其,TPE毛利率約20%、30%之多,營收比重約30%,有利強化獲利結構。

 臺橡去年合併營收221.12億元,EPS達3.59元。在大陸車市活絡及大陸產能全能貢獻,法人推估,今年合併營收上看320億元,EPS約4元至4.2元水準。

 臺橡印度、中國大陸新投資都將在2012年底、2013年投產,加計明年本有既定產能擴充貢獻,期望2014年集團合併營收奮力挑戰500億元大關。

 臺橡明年既有大陸廠本有擴產計畫,BR年產能從5萬噸拉高至7.2萬噸,SEBS年產能則由2萬噸提高為3.5萬噸,整體產能年增57%之多。(新聞來源:工商時報─彭暄貽/台北報導)

2010年6月25日

兩岸ECFA協議下台灣尼龍業最受惠

日期:10-06-17 12:10:16 編輯:亞洲紡織聯盟網

兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)將於本月展開新一回合協商,並可望簽署。ECFA簽訂後,台灣紡織上游産業受惠程度將優於下游,最看好者為尼龍粒。

第五次江陳會將於本月間在大陸登場,主要協商ECFA事宜,部分紡織産品可望入列早收清單項目。研究報告分析,ECFA簽訂後,紡織上游受惠程度將優於下游,包含上游的PTA(純對苯二甲酸)、EG(乙二醇)及CPL(已內醯胺)可能涵蓋在紡織內一起談,以紡織業來説,最看好者為尼龍粒,因尼龍粒的進入障礙與規格較聚酯高,中國目前尼龍粒的技術至少仍需三至五年才能趕上台灣的品質,而現行台灣尼龍粒相關産品銷往中國比重相當高。

此外,中國商業部4月對尼龍粒反傾銷做出終判,將要課徵美國産品29.3至96.5%之關稅(初判為30.4至36.2%),歐盟、俄羅斯及台灣維持初判,集體稅率維持4.2%,優於上述市場,加上目前台灣銷往中國關稅約6.5%,隨著ECFA的簽訂,而台灣對CPL並未有關稅,台灣銷往中國的尼龍粒總關稅約4.2%。以CPL生産尼龍粒約一比一估算,中國對CPL課徵7%的關稅,中國廠商生産成本較臺廠高出7%,因此簽訂ECFA後,就關稅角度看,臺廠反較有競爭力。

至於尼龍絲則屬中性,因台灣成衣廠多已移轉到中國生産製造,尼龍絲及尼龍原絲原本即多數從台灣進口,因此較無影響。另尼龍簾布部分,因台灣進尼龍簾布關稅約5%,而中國進口關稅約10%,因此未簽訂ECFA 後,對台灣尼龍簾布産業是一利多。

從産品供需狀況及産業澹旺季因素分析,部分紡纖原料報價將於8月後重啟漲勢。最近遠東區CPL現貨價已有鬆動現象,加上尼龍粒6至8月為澹季,預期近期價格可能走軟,然而8月後成衣旺季,加上中國尼龍粒需求仍強勁,中國尼龍紡絲新産能集中今年第3季開出,約年産22萬噸,將對尼龍粒的需求大增。但中國尼龍新廠僅有建恆開出,産能到14萬噸,因此將有7至8萬噸的需求缺口,屆時尼龍粒價格將可重啟漲勢,也將帶動下游尼龍簾布等相關報價。

另在聚酯棉部分,下半年在美國植棉面積持續因生質能源的發展受限、中國主要産棉區新疆也計畫縮減植棉面積以供畜牧業使用,供需吃緊下,預期棉花價格將維持高檔震盪,所以聚酯加工絲價格仍有上漲可能。

今年無CPL新產能開出,中石化不憂心短期跌價

精實新聞 2010-06-21 13:33:18 記者 賴淙民 報導

尼龍上游原料CPL(己內醯胺)價格續跌,中石化(1314)表示這為短期波動,對公司影響不大,仍看好長期走勢。中石化表示,國內的CPL需仰賴進口,中石化就算是全部內銷亦只滿足國內4成需求,以目前客戶態度觀望情況來看,對中石化CPL的銷售影響不大,加上今年沒有新產能開出,預計未來3~5年內CPL供需無問題。
上週尼龍原料CPL現貨價格從每噸2550美元來到每噸2425美元,續跌4.9%,幅度不可謂不小;中石化表示,價格續跌,主要是受到下游市場觀望影響,尼龍製造業者減產因應所致。

對此,國內CPL唯一生產商中石化表示,因國內CPL需求量大,需仰賴進口,中石化CPL全內銷也只能滿足國內4成的需求量,因此除非需求嚴重下滑,不然對中石化CPL的銷售並無影響。

中石化CPL每月報價一次,目前市面上之報價約每噸2600美元左右,中石化表示在CPL並無新產能開出,且末端需求並未改變之下,目前CPL行情波動,僅為心理因素及短期存貨調整所致,未來之價格走勢仍回歸供需與油價走勢。
業者認為,目前CPL供給仍趨緊俏,主因為CPL製程繁複,學習期較長,而且投資金額大,除了中石化確定於明年底完工投入12萬噸產能,並無確定之新產能開出。但CPL末端產品輪胎廉布與尼龍等需求隨東亞經濟成長不斷增加,因此中石化表示,3~5年內CPL供需並無問題。

中石化另一產品線AN(丙烯月青),本季以來價格持續站穩每頓2400美元以上,目前為每頓2420美元,報價表現現平穩。中石化表示,6月營收狀況要看最終原物料與成交價格而定,目前銷售量並無太大變化。

尼龍展望分歧 力鵬減產、集盛樂觀待回補買盤

精實新聞 2010-06-18 17:56:32 記者 賴淙民 報導

尼龍原料CPL(己內醯胺)價格反轉向下,尼龍下游廠商持續觀望,市況不明,兩大尼龍粒業者力鵬(1447)、集盛(1455)的看法有差距,力鵬因規模與產量較大,已率先減產因應,而集盛本身業績達成與庫存壓力較小,減產意願不高,評估下週買盤將逐漸明朗。

CPL因供給短缺且需求強勁,五月現貨價一度來到每噸2765美元,但並未獲得買盤支撐與轉嫁,隨後反轉向下,目前現貨價位來到每噸2550美元,甚至有每噸2450美元的價位。尼龍粒每噸成本約為每噸CPL價格加上180美元,下游中國客戶難以接受尼龍粒每噸3000美元以上價位,目前雙方仍舊在價格問題僵持不下。

力鵬率先減產因應,目前僅期望維持上月營收水準,表示市況仍不明朗,未來仍待進一步觀察。

而集盛表示雖市況不明,但本月訂單已經有七成在出貨,而估算月底時自有庫存水位未達一個月,業績達成與庫存壓力較小,目前不考慮降價求售,但為求保守,將小幅度減產因應。對於未來情勢,集盛推算下游客戶手中庫存應所剩無幾,將面臨無料可用而被迫停產的窘境,因此集盛認為補庫存的買盤,將在下週明朗。

2010年6月23日

Last Day Of GPCA Plastics Summit Focuses On Sustainability And The Image Of Plastics

http://www.zawya.com
Dubai, UAE June 16th, 2010

Sustainability and the image of plastics topped the agenda on day two of the inaugural GPCA Plastics Summit, which attracted some 300 key decision makers, market players and stakeholders from 120 global and regional companies.

"To address sustainability and to take it as an opportunity, the industry needs to take action," Wilfried Haensel, Executive Director of PlasticsEurope told delegates at the day two keynote address. "In order to take action, we need information and we need to effectively communicate the benefits of plastics and their contribution to climate protection and energy efficiency," Haensel pointed out.

PlasticsEurope gathered hard data by commissioning studies including specific ways plastic contibute to climate protection. Amongst other advocacy efforts is the use of social media such as Youtube to educate the public, particularly the younger generation, via a video produced by PlasticsEurope.

(To view video go to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82-Yz8MbxA0)

Environmentalist and author of The Plastic Bag War Hugo Verlomme spoke to the audience via video, pointing out that consumer response and behavior, not plastic bags per se, is responsible for the image of plastic bag as a polluter of the environment and the sea. Other speakers from the Middle East and global plastics industry included Muayad Al-Faresi, Regional Sales Manager, EQUATE, who continued the theme and spoke on the real story behind the image of plastics and various efforts such as recycling, and educating the public and students.

The buzz, however, was certainly around the announcement of the GPCA Plastics Innovation Award, open to plastic converters, research and development centers, regional universities and vocational institutes.

The award which will be given away for the first time in 2011 will be based on numerous criteria with the ultimate objective being to honor either an individual or company that has created a product, application or technology designed to maximize the growth of Plastics manufacturing in the Gulf in an economically, socially and environmentally responsible and sustainable manner.

"The plastics industry makes a significant contribution to our welfare by enabling innovation, enhancing quality of life and facilitating resource efficiency and climate protection," said Dr. Abdulwahab Al-Sadoun, Secretary General of GPCA. "The Gulf Industry's position as a global hub for the production of plastic resin is large and will be growing markedly over the next five years so it is imperative that we reward those who have made a significant contribution to this phenomenal growth."

The first three winners in the contest will be rewarded with the winner receiving a cash prize of AED 100,000 and a winner's certificate; the first runner-up will receive AED 50,000, while the 2nd runner-up will get AED 25,000.

- Ends -

Algae-based bioplastics a fast-growing market



18 June 2010 09:00 [Source: ICB] http://www.icis.com/

Food crops are commonly being used as raw materials for plastics, but researchers are now looking out to sea for future feedstocks

When "plastics" and "the sea" are used in the same sentence, it is often to highlight the problem of pollution. In fact, a boat made of plastic bottles - the Plastiki - is currently travelling across the sea to the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, where plastic waste is alleged to accumulate.

But an increasing number of researchers are looking to get plastics from the sea - not by fishing out discarded bottles, but by using marine life forms as a raw material to make polymers.

Algae is the most promising area of research right now. It is already widely used as a raw material for biofuels, but this is increasingly extending to plastics. US-headquartered Cereplast, which already makes plastics from starch, expects to start producing algae-based polymers by the end of this year.

"The plastics industry is the success story of the 20th century," says Cereplast CEO Frederic Scheer. "But it was built on the back of a single feedstock: oil. To make a success of biopolymers, we need to rely on more than one feedstock."

The theory behind biopolymers is that they use sustainable resources, rather than petrochemicals, as a raw material. A number of established products already exist: Ingeo, from US group NatureWorks, is the company's trade name for polylactic acid (PLA), a polymer derived from corn; MaterBi is a starch-derived polymer from Italian research group Novamont; and US chemical giant DuPont has produced a nylon that is derived in part from castor bean oil. It is also worth noting that one of the earliest polymers to be commercialized, Cellophane, is made from cellulose.
"By 2020, the bioplastics industry could be worth $20bn [€16bn]. To make this happen, we must not create havoc for the commodities we use. We don't want to push up the price of starch - and we don't want to push up the price of food," says Scheer.

The company has already begun to look at alternative feedstocks: last year, it launched biopolymer grades based on biomass, wood chips and flax. But it believes that algae could eventually become a more important feedstock than starch. Scheer says that, in five years, agricultural feedstocks could account for just 30% of Cereplast's business; a further 30-40% might be algae, with up to 30% coming from "other" sources.

"We've encountered several brand owners in the US and Europe who are concerned about the fact we are using starches - as these are an agricultural resource. They've told us that, as soon as we have algae-based resins, they'll be interested," he says.
Cereplast sources its raw material from companies that are creating "oil from algae" - taking the spent biomass, which "they do not know what to do with," and treating it until it has turned into a powder.

"This is then very similar to starch. We then use the same kind of equipment to process it, although the configuration is different," says Scheer.

There are a few other differences with its starch-based products: they are off-white, while the algae-based product is dark green. Algae also has a distinct odor. The Cereplast factory usually smells like a bakery, rather than a plastics factory; with algae, the smell is closer to a fish processing factory.

Cereplast expects to have two algae-based grades ready by the end of this year: one for injection molding, and one for thermoforming. Its algae-based resins will be designed along the same lines as its starch-based Hybrid Resins. These products, which are not biodegradable, are nevertheless derived in part from a sustainable resource. Its Biopropylene, for example, is derived equally from petroleum and starch - producing a polymer that has "similar physical characteristics" to traditional polypropylene (PP).

Looking further forward - by maybe three years - Cereplast hopes to create resins completely from algae.
"We're starting to work out how to create a monomer from these materials. Once that's been done, we'll be able to polymerize it for lots of different applications," says Scheer.

An ongoing challenge is to have steady access to raw materials. Scheer says that he must be sure that this is solved before ramping up production.
"We don't want to go commercial with these materials, and then not be able to offer them on a consistent basis," he says.

He also has a vision of how the materials might be used further in the future.
"I'd like to think we could create a biodegradable alternative to expanded polystyrene [EPS]," he says. "It often ends up on the beach, or in the ocean as litter. If we could create a monomer that could be used in these applications, these products would biodegrade in the water. The algae would then be returned to the ocean."

This fast-growing sector now has an industry association. The Algal Biomass
Organization was created two years ago. While its main focus is biofuels, it also promotes a number of other uses for algae - including water remediation, animal feed and as a polymer raw material.

"Companies such as General Motors, Dow Chemical and Kimberly-Clark attend our conferences, and are looking to use algae-based products. Algae-based resins is one area, though it's quite small. They are a few years behind fuel in terms of commercialization," says executive director Mary Rosenthal.
That said, she says the potential market for bioplastics - of which a growing amount could be taken up by algae - is 45 billion pounds (around 20m tonnes). This is the amount of conventional plastics that could be replaced with sustainably derived alternatives, she says.

FAST GROWTH
Most - if not all - bioplastics are currently derived from "terrestrial" (or land-grown) crops. Rosenthal says algae could offer a key benefit in comparison.
"Corn takes 100 days to mature, but algae can grow - and be harvested - in one week. Algae also has higher yields. Under the right conditions, you could have 50 harvests per year. That's truly sustainable."

At the same time, algae is not an alternative food crop: corn is edible, while algae is not. While some algae crops are taken directly from the sea, most are grown "commercially'"- in open pond systems.
"Algae-based plastics have emerged very quickly into the marketplace. Although very small, they have great opportunity because of their renewability," says Rosenthal.

MAJOR PLAYERS
Cereplast is not alone in its quest to make plastics from algae - although most of the major players have been shy to show their hands.
Algenol, a Florida-based company, has developed a biofuel plant based on algae, as well as setting up a partnership with a number of companies, including compatriot Dow Chemical - which will host a pilot-scale biorefinery at its site in Freeport, Texas. Algenol has devised a way to convert algae into ethanol - which it calls Direct to Ethanol - which can then be used, among other things, as a raw material to make plastics.

Sustainably sourced ethanol has already been used to make plastic: Brazilian petrochemical company Braskem has made ethanol from cane sugar, then converted it into polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

And the Soley Biotechnology Institute, a global research leader in microalgae since 2000, is "producing bioplastic from Spirulina dregs." Spirulina is a type of algae.
"When we extract some of the useful materials from Spirulina microalgae, a large volume of dregs are produced as a by-product," it says. "By our newly developed method, we are producing biodegradable plastics with the dregs."

Plastics industry denounces calls to restrict bisphenol A use

http://www.foodproductiondaily.com
Post a commentBy Rory Harrington, 14-Jun-2010

A call by the German environment agency for industry and consumers to find bisphenol A (BPA) alternatives on safety fears is unjustified and should be ignored, said a European plastics body.
The Polycarbonate/BPA Group of Plastics Europe has accused the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) of Germany of misusing the precautionary principle as a basis for urging a cutback in the utilisation of the chemical and causing unnecessary anxiety among industry players and the public alike.

The trade group also charged the UBA with damaging the credibility of the “existing regulatory assessment process as well as the authorities that have led this process, by requesting the substitution of a safe material without any sound scientific justification”.

Precautionary principle

In its statement last week, the UBA acknowledged that the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and the bloc’s Existing Chemicals Programme have declared the chemical is safe for consumers. But it pointed out that regulatory bodies in Canada, Denmark and France have all banned BPA-containing products for children for “precautionary reasons”.

“There’s is still a lack of data but what is already known about Bisphenol A should be sufficient to take decisions on the application of the precautionary principle and limit the use of special products containing Bisphenol A,” added the UBA’s Jochen Flasbarth.

But Plastics Europe said the group’s recommendation to limit exposure to the substance “is a misinterpretation of the underlying reasoning behind this concept”. It said this principle should only be applied if there were significant gaps in the risk assessment because of insufficient or scientific data. It rejected that this was the case for BPA as the extensive data base available meant associated risks could assessed “comparably well”.

“On the basis of this wealth of scientific analysis, experts have concluded that there is no need for further measures for BPA beyond those already in place”, said the BPA group from Plastics Europe.

Experts from EFSA and the US Food And Drug Administration are both currently undertaking major reviews on consumer exposure to BPA to decide if their current positions need to be revised. The European agency is due to deliver its updated opinion next month, while the FDA recommended in January that children’s exposure to the substance be limited and that industry look to find BPA alternatives.

Unpredictable risk

The plastic body also criticised the UBA for seeking to “replace a well-characterised risk with an unpredictable risk”. Provision of scientific data on chemicals, including BPA alternatives, in order to understand the relevant aspects of that substance was a basic pillar of the European safety system, said Plastics Europe.

“The UBA do not appear to have investigated the availability of alternatives,” said the trade body. “Specifically there is no evidence provided that the UBA have meticulously examined the data base and safety of potential alternatives to BPA.”

The group quoted the Swiss health authority, Bundesamt für Gesundheit, as saying: “A ban on BPA would inevitably cause manufacturers of packaging and consumer products (food contact materials) to have to switch to other substances, the toxicity of which is less well known. This would mean a well characterised risk would be replaced with a conspicuously unpredictable risk.”

Product safety is of the utmost importance to the industry, said the BPA/PC group. It added the call from the German regulators had created anxiety, damaged the credibility of bodies such as EFSA “without any sound scientific justification” and should therefore be rejected.

晉倫汽車複合材 蓄勢待發

2010-06-18 工商時報 【李水蓮】

 晉倫科技(6151),為台灣供應複合材料系列最完整之生產廠商,也是第一家專事工程塑膠複合材料產銷而掛牌上市櫃公司。產品類別包括PA、 PP、ABS、PBT、PC等五大工程塑膠複合材料。

 該公司董事長鐘春重表示,晉倫近年來瞄準中國大陸內需,積極開發交通器材零組件,包括水箱、保險桿、儀表板、內飾件等,供應台灣及大陸汽車OE、AM兩大市場。為因應該龐大市場的需求,該公司早已蓄勢待發,除不斷研發汽車複合材料外;亦積極研發家電綜合材包括黑色家電(電視)、白色家電(冰箱)、冷氣空調、筆記型電腦等外殼。去(2009)年該公司通過Sony GP認證,取得國際NB及監視器等知名大廠訂單,對晉倫未來發展將帶來高效益營收。

 晉倫科技5月份淨營業收入為105,324千元,與上月相當,較去年同期成長51.7%。5月份合併海外淨營業收入174,883千元,較上月小幅衰減3.3%,較去年同期成長67.1%。

 該公司自行結算5月份稅前損益為22,055元(含認列投資大陸淨利8,071千元);累計1至5月自行結算稅前損益為88,796千元(含認列投資大陸淨利34,173千元),自結稅前EPS為2.09元,去年同期稅前EPS為0.55元。

《各報要聞》早收清單我爭取到510餘項,PP等石化我力爭到底

2010-06-18 07:47 時報資訊 【時報-各報要聞】
 行政院長吳敦義昨晚透露,我方的ECFA早收清單向大陸爭取到510餘項,而大陸為260-270項,在石化產品部份,我方要爭取的111項,大陸同意94項,已爭取到8、9成,但是,石化業者最在意的聚丙烯(PP)、聚苯乙烯(PS)、工程塑膠(ABS)、聚乙烯(PE)等,我方並未放棄,將力爭到底。
  高層官員亦表示,PP等產品與工具機整機,「如果沒有放進去早收清單,就很難交代,也很難簽署下去」,這句話凸顯出我方一定要拿到的決心。

  連日來,外界對於ECFA第三次協商結果存在很多疑慮,除石化業者反彈外,大陸到底是拿到幾項,金額是多少,對政府部門不願說清楚很不滿意。

  吳揆昨天先在行政院會中表示,適時讓大陸當局知道台灣石化業者反彈很大,也是好事一樁,談判代表更有理由爭取。

  他在昨晚出席台商端節晚會,接受媒體訪問時「大方」透露,兩岸在17日有ECFA工作階層商談,我方早收清單從原先501項爭取到510幾項,大陸也再增加至260至270項,論金額大約4比1,我方稍占一點便宜。 (新聞來源:工商時報─記者呂雪彗、潘羿菁、劉馥瑜/綜合報導)

台化王文淵:變數多全年獲利力守去年水準

2010-06-19 01:35 工商時報 記者彭暄貽/台北報導

  台化(1326)去年EPS5.17元,昨(18)日股東會決議通過配發現金股息4.5元。台塑集團總裁暨台化董事長王文淵表示,今年景氣有很多不確定因素,最怕油價急遽變動,下半年還有中東、大陸新增產能挑戰。在第一季EPS2元基礎下,全年獲利以不低於去年水準為努力目標。

 台化今年計畫將芳香烴年產能從350萬噸提升達373萬噸;苯乙烯年產能120萬噸提振至130萬噸,至於配合IPA擴建所需原料而增設一套年產10萬噸間二甲苯(MX)預計第四季投產。

 此外,台化大陸寧波包括年產30萬噸ABS、20萬噸PS、60萬噸PTA及發電容量45萬瓦的汽電共生廠。今年也將配合大陸需求成長,規劃斥資5.5億美元,啟動PTA、ABS及合成酚等產品擴建。

 台塑集團去年營運復甦交出不錯成績,但牽動後續營運成長動能的ECFA早收清單、台灣六輕五期計畫,都還沒有具體圓滿回應,營運考驗依舊艱困。王文淵利用媒體關切機會,對兩岸政府一吐鬱悶苦水。王文淵說,東協逐漸形成,大陸領導說要對台灣讓利,但台灣業者只要維持與東協國家一樣的免稅水準就好了。以PP(聚丙烯)來說,東協和台灣銷往大陸的量差不多,關稅差了6.5%,台灣若無法與東協國家享有零關稅待遇,「這等於把我們殺掉,不要玩了!」

 另,台塑六輕五期計劃環評未過、持續延宕,王文淵也僅以「當然失望,但我們小小的公民有什麼方法?」無奈回應。

《金融》中華信評將奇美實業評等展望調升為「穩定」

2010-06-17 15:37 時報資訊 【時報-台北電】

 中華信評今天將奇美實業「twA」長期企業信用評等的評等展望由「負向」調整為「穩定」,並確認該評等。同時,中華信評並確認奇美實業的短期企業信用評等為「twA-1」;另外,該公司流通在外之無擔保公司債評等則獲確認為「twA」。

 中華信評預期,奇美實業的負債比率與現金流量保障措施,將可在該公司營運現金流量逐漸增強下持續獲得明顯的改善。過去幾季,中國市場強勁的需求成長,加上奇美實業本身在塑膠原料ABS樹脂市場中占有的領導地位,以及該產業主要原料短缺的情況,已使奇美實業的獲利與現金流量顯著增加。奇美實業2009年以非合併基礎計算的營業利益為新台幣94億元,且中華信評預期,該公司在2010年將可保持強健的獲利率表現。奇美實業2009年的調整後來自本業之現金流量對總借款比已提升至21.8%(已將奇美實業合併財務報表減除原奇美電子的部分),此一水準對該公司目前的評等等級而言屬令人滿意。

另外,中華信評預期,原奇美電子股份有限公司與群創光電股份有限公司合併後,奇美實業必須對合併後之新奇美提供財務支援的機會將頗為有限。中華信評認為,這將有助於奇美實業在來自其核心塑化事業穩定的營運現金流量支持下,繼續保持強健的財務體質。合併後,奇美實業及其集團公司約持有新奇美18.1%的股權,與鴻海團,為新奇美電子的前二大股東。中華信評認為,基於整合綜效,新奇美的營運將與鴻海具領先地位之電子代工製造服務事業較為緊密地結合。

奇美實業的評等獲確認係反映:該公司因其良好的技術能力與龐大生產規模而為其塑膠原料ABS本業帶來的低成本結構,以及該公司具備在產業週期循環期間產生尚稱穩定之現金流量的能力。另外,該公司對新奇美的投資亦可為其提供部分財務彈性。抵銷奇美實業前述評等優勢的負面因素則包括:全球石化業具有的高度景氣循環與競爭特性,以及奇美實業以往投資TFT LCD(薄膜電晶體液晶顯示器)業所產生的較高借款負擔。流動性

 奇美實業的流動性允當。就個別基礎來看,截至2010年3月31日止,奇美實業的現金與流動性金融資產部位為新台幣8.06億元,且無一年內將到期的長期借款。另外,截至前述時間為止,奇美實業未動用的中短期信用額度總額約為新台幣132億元,亦可為該公司的流動性提供緩衝。

中華信評預期,奇美實業的負債比率與現金流量保障措施,將可在來自其核心塑化事業的強健現金流量支持下繼續獲得改善。同時,中華信評預期,在奇美實業毋須為新奇美提供大規模財務支援的情況下,該公司將可在未來的一至二年中保持強健的財務體質。

若奇美實業能將其調整後來自本業之現金流量對借款比穩定維持在30%以上,則中華信評可能會調升該公司的評等。可能導致前述評等調升結果的發展包括:奇美實業進一步提升其市場地位、成功地向諸如特殊化學方面的新產品擴展、節制資本支出及投資、或是運用來自出售新奇美持股部位的資金降低其借款水準等。反之,若奇美實業因採取過度積極的擴張與投資行動,或是其主要產品市場發生出乎意料的衰退情勢,進而導致該公司的調整後來自本業之現金流量對借款比降至20%以下且維持一段較長的時間,則中華信評可能會調降奇美實業的評等。

《熱門族群》二線塑膠股大漲,PVC、ABS納早收添想像空間

2010-06-23 14:57 時報資訊 【時報記者何美如台北報導】

 大陸海協會與我海基會明日將舉行第五次江陳會預備性磋商,ECFA四次正式協商也一併登場,將確認ECFA(兩岸經濟協議)早收清單。儘管五大泛用樹脂目前僅PP(聚丙烯)獲大陸首肯納入,然因相關官員指出,早收項目最後一刻都可能再增加,今日二線塑膠類股走強,PVC(聚氯乙烯)、ABS(丙烯(月青)-丁二烯-苯乙烯共聚物)、SM(多苯乙烯)族群最猛,華夏(1305)、台達化(1309)、台苯(1310)以漲停作收,國喬(1312)漲幅達5.6%,也讓市場增添想像空間。
據了解,國內石化業者相當重視的上游原料的ABS、五大泛用樹脂PS、ABS、PP、PE(聚乙烯)、PVC等中,僅PP納入早收清單,不過相關官員指出,在正式協商談判桌上,我方會持續爭取未列入早收的石化產品,早收項目最後一刻都還有可能再增加。法人表示,過去合併案或利多政策公布前,股價通常會先反應,今日PVC、ABS、SM族群走強,華夏、台達化、台苯、國喬全面大漲,或有可能是知情人士進場卡位,也可能是預期心理,但真實情況仍待早收清單出爐佐證。

第五次江陳會將在下周一(28日)左右登場,預備性磋商預定明(24)日舉行,為早收清單做最後確認。台灣目前取得的兩岸經濟協議(ECFA)早收清單金額已占我出口到大陸的貿易總額15%,約136億美元,占我出口到大陸的貿易總額15%,早收清單項目已增至530項左右。

2010年6月21日

Do What You Love, Love What You Do - 2010




塑膠成型也可以這麼動感!! 一邊看一邊想笑,台灣的成型廠應該要配周董的歌,雙節棍或是魔術先生都不錯...

PS. 影片來自70年的老字號工廠,網站也是做的有模有樣的 (http://www.blackwellplastics.com/index.html)

2010年6月18日

早收清單我爭取到510餘項,PP等石化我力爭到底

【時報-各報要聞】

行政院長吳敦義昨晚透露,我方的ECFA早收清單向大陸爭取到510餘項,而大陸為260-270項,在石化產品部份,我方要爭取的111項,大陸同意94項,已爭取到8、9成,但是,石化業者最在意的聚丙烯(PP)、聚苯乙烯(PS)、工程塑膠(ABS)、聚乙烯(PE)等,我方並未放棄,將力爭到底。

  高層官員亦表示,PP等產品與工具機整機,「如果沒有放進去早收清單,就很難交代,也很難簽署下去」,這句話凸顯出我方一定要拿到的決心。

  連日來,外界對於ECFA第三次協商結果存在很多疑慮,除石化業者反彈外,大陸到底是拿到幾項,金額是多少,對政府部門不願說清楚很不滿意。

  吳揆昨天先在行政院會中表示,適時讓大陸當局知道台灣石化業者反彈很大,也是好事一樁,談判代表更有理由爭取。

  他在昨晚出席台商端節晚會,接受媒體訪問時「大方」透露,兩岸在17日有ECFA工作階層商談,我方早收清單從原先501項爭取到510幾項,大陸也再增加至260至270項,論金額大約4比1,我方稍占一點便宜。 (新聞來源:工商時報─記者呂雪彗、潘羿菁、劉馥瑜/綜合報導)

《類股》力鵬、集盛迎接ECFA簽訂後的免關稅效應

2010-06-14 【時報記者任珮云台北報導】

尼龍廠是兩岸經濟架構協議(ECFA)的標準受惠股,國內兩大尼龍廠力鵬(1447)及集盛(1455)等候ECFA正式簽訂後的免關稅效應發酵。
今年尼龍廠的市況不差,中國雖是尼龍大國但本身供給不足,約有一半的進口量是台灣廠商供應,而力鵬及集盛正是其中主要供應廠商。台灣出口到中國的紡纖產品,主要還是尼龍部分,佔台灣尼龍總出口量的50%左右,而目前尼龍粒輸往中國關稅約6.5%,尼龍絲約5%,法人估,當ECFA簽訂之後,光是這5%到6.5%的關稅降到零,將直接提升廠商的毛利表現。
力鵬5月份營收計15.54億元, 比去年同期成長19.29 %,累計99 年1月至5月月營收計100.23億元, 比去年同期成長56.19 %。

集盛5月份營收計14.96億元,比去年同期成長55.17%,累計99 年1月至5月月營收計71.36億元,比去年同期成長54.38%。

集盛 計畫策略性減產

經濟日報╱記者陳怡君/台北
2010.06.17 02:19 am

尼龍原料行情波動,導致下游客戶抱持觀望態度,尼龍粒製造廠集盛(1455)表示,不排除在端午節後祭出「策略性減產」;另一家尼龍粒大廠力鵬(1447)更從5月起,率先調節產量。法人分析,隨著油價和己內醯胺(CPL)價格第三季回穩,力鵬的營運可以重回成長軌道。

集盛透露,計劃端午節後稍微減產,如此一來,生產尼龍粒所需的上游原料CPL(己內醯胺)就不需用太多,可降低生產成本,另一方面,產出的成品也不會太多,造成庫存壓力。

【2010/06/17 經濟日報】

紡織上游 ECFA來加油

【聯合晚報╱記者吳文淵/台北報導】
2010.06.13 03:14 pm

兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)將於本月展開新一回合協商,並可望簽署。永豐投顧指出,ECFA簽訂後,台灣紡織上游產業受惠程度將優於下游,最看好者為尼龍粒。

第五次江陳會將於本月間在大陸登場,主要協商ECFA事宜,部分紡織產品可望入列早收清單項目。永豐投顧新近出具研究報告分析,ECFA簽訂後,紡織上游受惠程度將優於下游,包含上游的PTA(純對苯二甲酸)、EG(乙二醇)及CPL(已內醯胺)可能涵蓋在紡織內一起談,以紡織業來說,最看好者為尼龍粒,因尼龍粒的進入障礙與規格較聚酯高,中國目前尼龍粒的技術至少仍需三至五年才能趕上台灣的品質,而現行台灣尼龍粒相關產品銷往中國比重相當高。

此外,中國商業部4月對尼龍粒反傾銷做出終判,將要課徵美國產品29.3至96.5%之關稅(初判為30.4至36.2%),歐盟、俄羅斯及台灣維持初判,集體稅率維持4.2%,優於上述市場,加上目前台灣銷往中國關稅約6.5%,隨著ECFA的簽訂,而台灣對CPL並未有關稅,台灣銷往中國的尼龍粒總關稅約4.2%。以CPL生產尼龍粒約一比一估算,中國對CPL課徵7%的關稅,中國廠商生產成本較台廠高出7%,因此簽訂ECFA後,就關稅角度看,台廠反較有競爭力。

至於尼龍絲則屬中性,因台灣成衣廠多已移轉到中國生產製造,尼龍絲及尼龍原絲原本即多數從台灣進口,因此較無影響。另尼龍簾布部分,因台灣進尼龍簾布關稅約5%,而中國進口關稅約10%,因此未簽訂ECFA 後,對台灣尼龍簾布產業是一利多。

永豐投顧同時從產品供需狀況及產業淡旺季因素分析,認為部分紡纖原料報價將於8月後重啟漲勢。永豐投顧指出,最近遠東區CPL現貨價已有鬆動現象,加上尼龍粒6至8月為淡季,預期近期價格可能走軟,然而8月後成衣旺季,加上中國尼龍粒需求仍強勁,中國尼龍紡絲新產能集中今年第3季開出,約年產22萬噸,將對尼龍粒的需求大增。但中國尼龍新廠僅有建恆開出,產能到14萬噸,因此將有7至8萬噸的需求缺口,屆時尼龍粒價格將可重啟漲勢,也將帶動下游尼龍簾布等相關報價。

另在聚酯棉部分,下半年在美國植棉面積持續因生質能源的發展受限、中國主要產棉區新疆也計畫縮減植棉面積以供畜牧業使用,供需吃緊下,預期棉花價格將維持高檔震盪,所以聚酯加工絲價格仍有上漲可能。

【2010/06/13 聯合晚報】@ http://udn.com/

集盛本季獲利看增

【經濟日報╱記者陳怡君/桃園報導】
2010.06.15 03:29 am

看準景氣復甦商機,集盛(1455)今年將擴充加工絲產能,同時也正在評估尼龍粒的擴產計畫。法人就預估,集盛今年第二季的營收及獲利可望超越第一季。

集盛昨(14)日召開股東會,公司方面透露,由於加工絲目前呈現供不應求的情況,且具領導優勢,除現有的60台機台外,已擴充七台新的假撚絲機台,預計今年底擴產後,加工絲產能將可提高二至三成至。

集盛表示,因為全球氣候變遷,造成棉花、生絲大漲,大陸又有缺工、缺水、缺電的問題,會使得紡織業的染整不準時,影響交期時間,導致許多原本向大陸廠商下單的品牌客戶,紛紛轉單到交貨準時且貿易履約度較佳的台灣廠商,集盛的加工絲及原絲業績受惠。

另一方面,占集盛營收六成的尼龍粒,目前也正在評估擴產;一旦決定擴產,預計到明年底將會開始投產,日產量將增加三至四成。

去年初全球景氣由谷底回升,集盛因備足低價尼龍原料CPL(己內醯胺),繳出全產全銷的亮麗成績。另一方面,集盛的加工絲、尼龍紡絲毛利率穩定,都讓集盛去年繳出稅前盈餘9.2億元的好成績,創建廠40年來新高。

【2010/06/15 經濟日報】@ http://udn.com/

2010年6月16日

利多加持 塑化股價量升溫

2010-06-13 工商時報 【記者彭暄貽/台北報導】

ECFA三度協商時間敲定,加上油價止跌反彈,增添報價支撐,指標塑化族群受惠,價量動能升溫。分析師指出,ECFA協商與大陸家電下鄉政策、化纖需求延續,台塑四寶、台達化(1309)、國喬(1310)及中石化(1314)成為推薦首選。

 伴隨大陸需求升溫,加上部分舊廠淘汰趨勢啟動,南亞今年大陸廠及EG收益聯袂告捷;其中,大陸廠首季收益貢獻已超越去年全年表現。在價量穩健推進下,南亞大陸廠今年獲利可望逾40億元,比去年增長5倍之多。搭配DRAM、PCB等轉投資營運題材烘托,外資反轉回補南亞,近二日買超4,842張。

 塑化廠商認為,目前原油價格70美元有撐,預期丙烯、乙烯等上游原料報價第二季底、第三季初將逐漸落底,近期下游出現的觀望氣氛也將逐漸好轉,中下游塑化報價補跌後也可望逐步回穩,有利第三季落底走堅回溫。 此外,大陸家電舊換新延長至明年底,試點擴大至28省市;家電以舊換新政策也被業界視為家電下鄉姊妹政策。

 在拉回空間已多,加上預期大陸政策持續引導民生內需消費方案,增添大陸買盤支撐,ABS、PS現貨報價止穩回溫,為台化、國喬及台達化廠商營運增添利多。

 5月塑化報價拉回整理,塑化廠單月營收大多下跌10%至15%,惟中石化、國喬因CPL、AN及SM、ABS價量回溫支撐,5月營收逆勢揚升,中石化單月業績月增28%,年成長66.43%。

 國喬SM年產能約33萬噸、ABS約8萬噸。瞄準大陸ABS每年8%年增需求,國喬、奇美合併的大陸新ABS廠,擬以盈餘轉增資方式,加碼投資1億美元(約新台幣32億元),擴充15萬噸ABS、7.5萬噸PMMA及導光板產能;屆時,大陸合併新廠總產能將達110萬噸,鞏固大陸ABS第一大廠地位。

 台達化產品包括ABS、GPS、HIPS、EPS等,台灣、大陸天津、中山廠合計總年產能達46萬噸。產品銷售以外銷為主,其中又以大陸、香港比重最大,約佔近四成比重,其次則為台灣與中東地區。

台橡橡膠價 下季調漲


【經濟日報╱記者邱展光/台北報導】
2010.06.12 02:56 am

台橡(2103)總經理涂偉華昨(11)日表示,受大陸打房、歐洲債信危機波及,大陸汽車銷售呈遲緩,台橡第二季獲利表現將與第一季持平,但隨著大陸庫存汽車5、6月間將消化完,大陸汽車市場需求仍將增加,台橡計畫第三季調高橡膠售價格。

法人估計,台橡第一季每股稅後純益為0.99元;如依公司估計,第二季獲利與第一季差不多來看,第二季每股稅後純益約1元左右,上半年的每股稅後純益約在2元左右。

涂偉華強調,月前,他在法說會預估第二季需求景氣時認為,第二季獲利將比第一季好。但此時,他要修正這個說法;主要是最近大陸打壓房市、歐洲債信危機等因素影響,大陸汽車銷售有遲緩現象,汽車、輪胎庫存過高下,波及到合成橡膠需求。

不過,涂偉華認為,大陸庫存汽車5、6月間將能消化完,市場並恢復到正常水準。依大陸汽車需求,今年需求量將由2009年的1,300萬輛增加至1,500萬輛。因此,大對於第三季的價格談判,台橡還是堅持漲價的立場。至於,未來的產品價格,端賴原料丁二烯行情是否能夠持穩而定。

涂偉華強調,第三季的價格是在第二季的基礎上再調漲一點。至少,苯乙烯-丁二烯共聚橡膠(SBR)還有調漲的空間;丁二烯橡膠雖然差一點,但整體看還是好的。

台橡副總經理陳青原指出,大陸房市打壓、汽車需求放慢,及歐洲債信危機,致台橡第二季的產品毛利率與第二季差不多。第一、二季產品毛利率差不多,是指SBR與BR而言;另一種特用型的熱可塑性橡膠(TPE),因與其他國家生產的TPE有差異性,毛利率仍可維持在30%左右,且不受原料丁二烯價格左右。

涂偉華接著說:「第三季的獲利主要是來自TPE,次之是SBR,BR則墊後。依目前的產品別,TPE的營收與獲利比重占總產能的30%。」

依目前台橡的布局,涂偉華表示,除了台灣、大陸之外,未來發展重點應放在印度。台橡在印度投資年產12萬公噸的SBR投產後,需求穩定的話,年產能將擴充至20萬公噸。未來,原料供應能夠穩定且充裕,將再擴及其他的品項;因為,印度是塊未開發的合成橡膠處女地。

涂偉華:四年內營收衝500億

台橡總經理涂偉華(聯合報系資料庫)
【經濟日報╱記者邱展光/台北報導】 2010.06.12 02:56 am


涂偉華接掌台橡(2103)總經理(執行長)六年,獲利能力大增,並將台橡推升到另一層次。隨著各項產品5.2萬公噸新產能在2013年全數投產,涂偉華發下豪語,2014年台橡總營收將達500億元。

台橡昨(11)日收盤價44.2元,上漲0.35元。法人估算,以台橡產品毛利率15%,及其資本額計,2014年每股稅後純益(EPS)可達到8元水準,依本益比十倍計算,台橡的股價應該可以站上每股80元。

涂偉華發下豪語的背後,是有多項投資案正在進行。包括大陸南通申華丁二烯橡膠(BR)擴產、印度苯乙烯-丁二烯共聚橡膠(SBR )年產12萬公噸新建、大陸南通丁橡膠(NBR)新建,及大陸熱可塑性橡膠(TPE)擴建等。這些新擴產能一旦正式投產,將在2013年以後帶來爆發性的效益。

但是,涂偉華感嘆說,擴充行動集中在同一時間進行,成長的速度太快了,目前已感到沒有適當人才。「這個人才是指,能夠獨當一面的專業經理人。」鑑於此,台橡被迫透過獵人頭公司,前往美國徵才。

涂偉華表示,跟隨著國際化腳步,產品要有差異化,才能領先同業,創造利潤。為此,台橡今年投入3億元的研發經費,較2009年的1億多元多出了兩倍有餘;另外,台橡正在高雄縣岡山打造屬於自己的技術、產品研發中心。

涂偉華指出,從今年下半年開始,配合著技術、研發中心,還要建立一個技術團隊,針對客戶研發特殊性且專屬的產品。研發出來後,再與客戶互動,待客戶滿意後,再上線生產。涂偉華指出,台橡未來除了量之外,還要有質的改變。

台達化:客戶庫存將用盡,ABS買盤下旬浮現

2010/06/11 09:24 http://www.funddj.com

泛用塑膠ABS因今年初以來需求強烈、今年四月份ABS價格來每公頓2,000美元的今年高峰,惟其佔6成比重的原料SM(苯乙烯)價格在五月初回檔、造成想購買ABS的下游客戶觀望。生產ABS的台達化(1309)表示,ABS報價目前報價1,950美元/噸,只要全球整體經濟情況不變,台達化推測客戶的庫存快要用盡,觀望情況不會拖太久,其買盤會在6月下旬浮現。

泛用塑膠ABS(丙烯腈/丁二烯/苯乙烯共聚物)由AN(丙烯腈)、BD(丁二烯)和SM(苯乙烯)共聚合而成,比例依規格而有不同,一般約為2:2:6。國內ABS製造廠商有奇美實業、台化(1326)、國喬(1312)、台達化,其中奇美實業為全球最大ABS生產商。

今年ABS報價在第二季四月份曾創下高峰,主要是成本推升與需求強烈因素,從年初每公噸1568美元到最高點四月中每公噸2000美元,漲幅27%,在景氣回升帶動報價走高,以及低價庫存帶來的利差擴大效益,讓台達化前五月累計營收42.84億元、年增率53.48%,第一季每股稅後盈餘0.44元,相較去年第四季0.20元成長一倍,毛利率也從7.47%提昇至9.21%。

上半年ABS原料AN從年初每公噸1800美元,一路飆漲至今日每公噸2450美元漲幅36%,而同期間BD也從每公噸1752美元漲到2061美元,漲幅17%。但ABS最大宗原料SM價格維持在每公噸1250-1300美元之間,若以2:2:6比例計算,ABS原料成本則僅增加12%。

但五月初SM價格下跌117美元,跌幅達10%,使ABS下游客戶出現觀望氣氛,買盤減少,目前台達化 ABS報價仍維持在每公噸1950美元。台達化表示,ABS銷售對象主要為中國地區之來料加工廠,在全球總體經濟格局不變下,ABS產品末端需求力道仍在、變動不大,在正常耗用速度之下,台達化估算目前下游廠商手邊庫存應所剩無幾,並表示ABS買盤應在六月中下旬浮現。

另外,對於未來之發展,目前正評估對天津EPS(發泡級PS)廠去瓶頸化工程,若確定實行,最快今年底可完成,屆時年產量可由10萬噸提昇至13萬噸。另外,對於林園ABS廠亦有同樣的去瓶頸想法,但表示因ABS廠去瓶頸工程投資較高,約10億元,目前還處於計畫階段,沒有執行的時間表。

塑膠容器減量 偉盟PLA接單旺

工商時報 2010/06/14 【記者袁延壽/台北報導】

  環保署上周三(9)日公告,提高大賣場等公私場所對塑膠類托盤及包裝盒使用限制,國內最大環保材料PLA廠偉盟(8925)原有家樂福、大潤發客戶訂單,可望增加。偉盟總經理黃志賢指出,中國大陸及台灣的PLA在手訂單已超過13億元,是去年一倍以上,今年PLA整體獲利目標一定會比去年大幅成長。

  根據環保署公告,99年度下半年,塑膠類容器使用量實際減量率,將從去年下半年的25%,提高到30%。市場估算,依此減量率,國內 塑膠製容器使用量,將減少九百公噸上下

  黃志賢表示,家樂福、大潤發等大賣場,原本就是偉盟PLA的客戶,在環保署提高塑膠製容器減量率,對手中訂單自然有增加動能,公 司預估,國內PLA市場,今年應會有25%以上的成長。

  偉盟認為,中國大陸才是環保材料PLA真正快速成長的市場,中國中央對環保、節能減碳的要求下,公司預估,未來一年,中國市場對PLA的需求,會有1、2倍的增加。

  黃志賢指出,中國大陸市場是偉盟2010年營收獲利的主要動能。其 中,與廈門物資集團合作的廈門廠,從PLA銷售到下游成品一條龍生產線,6月8日已正式開幕生產及銷售,規畫產能為年營業額新台幣1 2億元。

  另外,規畫中的江蘇廠,已與年營業額超過百億元人民幣的江蘇物聯集團簽約,合資1千萬美元的PLA食品容器真空成型廠,今年下半年,營運團隊也要開始銷售。

  根據偉盟統計,2009年,偉盟在PLA這塊領域,台灣的營業金額6.5億元,今年台灣在手訂單已有6、7億元,而中國大陸包括廈門、上海、北京等地區,訂單也高達7億元上下。

  法人指出,去年偉盟銷售PLA原料的毛利率就約有15、6%,今年, 跨足下游產品製程,預估毛利率應在30%上下。

PET紗產業 新台灣奇蹟 - 垃圾變黃金,PET紗供應鏈儼然成形

工商時報 A4/綜合要聞 2010/06/10
【記者劉朱松/台中報導】

  在節能減碳風行下,回收的寶特瓶(PET瓶)垃圾,也可變黃金; 甚至成為明(11)日登場南非世足賽9個國家代表隊穿著Nike運動服 的用料。由於台灣PET紗產業的供應鏈,已儼然成形,受惠的廠商包括與Nike往來的織布廠─弘裕企業、成衣廠的廣德集團,及富泰企業 等多家公司。

  在慈濟功德會等PET瓶資源回收站,台灣1年可回收的PET瓶數量,約在10萬噸,可做成母粒或瓶片。其中,部分的回收PET,經聚合抽紗或製成纖維,若回收品質不錯,幾乎與新料一樣,可做成長纖,運用在POLO衫等產品;反之,則做成短纖,運用在包括地毯與毛毯等產 品。

  包括中紡科技、力麗、新光合纖、南亞及宏盛環保科技等塑膠或化纖廠,將回收的PET,經聚合抽絲製成PET環保紗或纖維,再銷售給台 灣的織布廠與織帶廠,藉以擴大產品的應用面。

  為此,紡織產業綜合研究所已籌組PET環保纖維產業策略聯盟,主 要成員包括生產PET大廠的新光合纖、織布廠的世堡紡織、成衣貿易 商的德式馬,及慈濟旗下各地回收站等單位,期望建置完成回收PET 產業供應鏈與回收品牌,進而帶動下游成衣業與地毯業,能走環保與 節能風。

  另外,弘裕企業向中紡、南亞、新光合纖及力麗等上游原料廠,採購PET環保紗或纖維,再配合往來兩家染整廠,將其製成布種,主力 搶攻成衣及工業用布的袋箱包與家飾等領域。

  目前弘裕旗下台灣廠的PET環保布,分別交給台商織布廠的廣德集 團與桃園的富泰紡織,製成運動服等產品,再交給Nike。

  弘裕總經理葉明洲指出,去年PET環保布訂單金額不到1,500萬元,但因全球知名品牌廠商重視社會責任與推動愛護地球的措施,使得PET環保布最近接單轉強,粗估今年接單金額約5,000萬元。

  除了Nike採用PET環保紗外,另一家運動品牌大廠adidas,也開始 向台商採購PET環保素材。葉明洲指出,弘裕已將小量PET環保布,間 接交給adidas,相信未來還會有更多歐美品牌客戶採用回收PET材質 。

台塑加碼寧波 將逾百億台幣 呂祖善訪六輕 特別關注節能減排

2010-06-14 旺報 【記者陳秀蘭/台北報導】

浙江省長呂祖善昨天前往台塑雲林麥寮工業區考察,爭取台塑企業加碼寧波投資。據了解,看好大陸內需,台塑集團旗下台化、南亞已決定在寧波興建PTA(純對苯二甲酸)、ABS、丙二酚等廠,總投資額估計逾百億新台幣。

 台塑集團總裁王文淵日前參加浙台經貿交流合作論壇時也證實,台塑集團在年初已提出寧波加碼投資計畫,這些建廠計畫將陸續展開,金額不小。「這次省長訪台,不會有新的加碼投資」。

 盼麥寮模式搬到寧波

 台塑寧波石化專區,是台塑集團在大陸最大石化生產基地。王文淵所指的年初已提出的相關寧波建廠計畫,據了解,至少超過百億元新台幣。包括台化擬興建年產150萬公噸的PTA、ABS及丙二酚3大廠及南亞擬擴建可塑劑廠。

 呂祖善昨天前往台塑雲林麥寮工業區,考察台塑企業節能減排的環保經驗,呂祖善來台前接受台灣媒體訪問時曾表示,此行將爭取台塑集團加碼投資寧波。

 昨天呂祖善在看了台塑六輕廠區的節能減排經驗後,期盼王文淵把麥寮模式搬到寧波,「做起來之後,就是浙江省和寧波市的金字招牌。」

 去年營收160億人民幣

 王文淵昨率台塑、台化、台塑化及南亞4大公司董事長、總經理親自接待。王文淵稱許呂祖善是第一個大陸省級領導來考察並要求看節能減排的省長,相當佩服。

 迄至目前為止,台塑集團投入寧波石化園區總投資額超過10億美元,2009年貢獻營收估計達人民幣160億元(約新台幣784億元)。

 台塑集團原擬在寧波投資輕油裂解廠,以利石化上中下游垂直整合。這項又被稱為寧波大乙烯計畫,早在台塑企業創辦人王永慶在世時,就積極爭取推動;但因為大陸方面要求合資,致迄今無法啟動。不過,呂祖善此行訪台,對台塑寧波大乙烯計畫並未公開表示任何說法與意見。

需求增溫 台塑成長添動能

2010-06-14 工商時報 【記者彭暄貽/台北報導】

因應下半年中東、大陸大量乙烯及PE、PP新增產能壓力,台塑(1301)改以提振PVC、化學品推升力道,增添成長動能。其中,AN、MMA及ECH等化學品因今年全球需求年增3%至6%,加上供給趨緊,帶動行情、價差高檔波動,台塑今年化學品銷量可望年增8%至17%。

 此外,雖然大陸PVC電石法淘汰進度趨緩,惟印度每年PVC需求成長約15%至20%,目前僅韓國LG、韓華及台灣的台塑、大洋四家公司免反傾銷,其餘國家PVC廠均須付出每噸10美元至120美元不等的反傾銷稅,台塑持續擴張印度銷售版圖,並切入土耳其、蘇聯、烏克蘭及非洲等潛力市場開拓,以維持年度PVC銷售年增5%目標。

 台塑旗下AN年產能28萬噸,ECH年產10萬噸及MMA9.8萬噸。去年AN因大陸亞克力棉、ABS需求復甦,年度銷售年增18%;MMA受惠下游液晶顯示器(TFTLCD)導光板穩定成長,銷售成長5%。ECH則因積極開拓東南亞、中東市場,年度銷量也增長4%。

 今年,化學品全球需求穩健推升,台塑AN、MMA及ECH年度銷量分別以年增8%、13.7%及16.7%加以砥礪。

 台塑表示,亞克力棉、ABS需求可望持續推升,NBR等需求也穩健發展,推估今年全球AN需求可望年增5.1%。此外,大陸家電下鄉等內需政策持續執行,加上導光板產業可望因LED電視新用途大利推廣而維持高度成長,推估今年全球MMA需求將連動成長6.1%。

 至於ECH因全球景氣逐步復甦,加上大陸政府投入鉅資擴大基礎建設,有助Epoxy及MMA需求持續增長,推估今年全球ECH需求年增約3.5%。

 分析師指出,大陸90萬噸ABS擴建計畫持續推動,預估未來2年大陸AN需求將增加23萬噸,配合ECH、MMA行情可期,台塑今年本業收益約有20%的年增表現。

2010年6月11日

簽ECFA零關稅 有利尼龍粒族群

【中央社╱台北10日電】2010.06.10 11:59 am

油價近期走軟帶動紡織上下游原物料價格走跌,紡織股跟著補跌;不過法人看好簽訂兩岸經濟協議 (ECFA)後有利尼龍粒業者,除零關稅外,較低的反傾銷稅也使台商具競爭力。

法人表示,5月底到6月初國際油價下跌,連帶使得紡織上下游原物料價格多數回檔,紡織股價格也出現今年以來首次補跌。

法人指出,就尼龍粒上游原料己內醯胺 (CPL)來看,遠東區CPL現貨價開始鬆動,加上尼龍粒6月到8月為淡季,預期價格下跌機率較大;8月後成衣旺季來臨,加上中國尼龍需求仍強勁,中國今、明兩年尼龍紡絲產能集中今年第3季開出,約年產22萬噸,將對尼龍粒的需求大增。

而中國尼龍粒僅福建力恆 (日產能200噸)開出,年產能不到14萬噸,因此將有7萬到8萬噸需求缺口,尼龍價格將可重啟漲勢,將帶動下游簾布等相關報價。

法人說,若ECFA最快6月簽訂,最看好尼龍粒受惠,因尼龍粒的進入障礙與規格較聚酯高。中國商業部4月對尼龍粒反傾銷做出終判,台灣反傾銷稅維持4.2%,簽訂ECFA後,若降至零關稅,加上台灣對CPL沒有關稅,台灣銷往中國的尼龍粒僅支付反傾銷稅4.2%。

但相對的,中國對CPL課徵7%的關稅,中國廠商生產成本高於台廠7%,因此簽訂ECFA後,就關稅角度來看,台廠更具競爭力。

法人看好尼龍粒相關廠商,包括集盛、力麗、力鵬、福懋等。

Jun 04, 2010 California moves toward banning plastic shopping bags


California, which has some of the nation's strictest environmental rules, may soon become the first state to ban plastic shopping bags.

Its Assembly passed a bill Wednesday, by a 41-27 vote, to bar grocery stores from offering plastic bags beginning in Jan. 2012. The ban would extend to convenience stores, drugstores and mom-and-pop shops in July 2013.

Consumers would have to carry their goods in reusable bags or pay at least 5 cents for paper bags made of partially recycled content.

GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger supports the bill, which still needs to pass the state Senate, reports the San Diego Union-Tribune.

San Francisco and Oakland have already banned plastic bags, and Washington, D.C., now requires grocery stores to charge a nickel for disposable ones, but no state has yet to muster enough support to pass such a ban despite a multiyear push from environmentalists.

What made the difference in California was the support from the California Grocers Association, which previously opposed the bill, according to the Union-Tribune.

David Heylen, spokesman for the grocers group, said the bill's revisions that bar local governments from enacting new or stricter laws made sense, according to the story, noting 20 California municipalities are considering similar laws. He also welcomed its inclusion of other stores.

"We wanted uniformity in who the bill impacts, and we wanted uniformity in how it was enacted," Heylen said in the story.

Environmental groups including Heal the Bay said the bill, which still needs Senate approval, could prompt other states to follow California's lead.

Yet the American Chemistry Council, a trade group for chemistry companies including plastic makers, said the bill could threaten as many as 500 jobs in the Los Angeles area and amount to a $1 billion tax on consumers, according to the story.

《商情》國內外紡織、塑料市場一周綜述(20100531-20100604)

2010-06-05 【時報-記者徐相宜綜合報導】

國內外紡織、塑料市場一周綜述

 ◎嫘縈棉:
 由於木片價格直飆,推動紙漿價格上揚,而同樣原料為木漿的嫘縈棉,漲勢亦十分強勁,自2009年2月開始,嫘縈棉自每公斤63元反彈,6月報價更直逼90元大關,來到每公斤89元,累計近1年4個月漲幅達41%;嫘縈棉價格持續調漲,已創下近21年5個月新高紀錄,國內業者表示,居高不下的價格,令下游客戶接受意願減弱,行情觸頂,預期短期恐向下修正。

 ◎亞克力棉:
 受下游需求平穩支撐,6月亞克力棉價格持平;據國內業者表示,由於AN行情漲勢漸緩,加上下游需求平穩,6月亞克力棉價格持平於每公斤95元,但預期8月產業淡季來臨,需求恐出現回軟,後勢仍待觀望;據『CIP商品行情網』資料顯示,亞克力棉報價自2009年初每公斤68元大幅反彈,最新來到每公斤95元,累計漲幅高達39%。

 ◎尼龍粒:
 上游原料走軟,尼龍粒價格恐回跌;據國內業者表示,因上游原料己內醯胺(CPL)價格小幅回落,預期尼龍粒6月價格可望同步向下修正。在此之前,受到原料大漲推動,尼龍粒6半光外銷價一度站上每公噸3千大關;據『CIP商品行情網』資料顯示,己內醯胺(CPL)遠東區CFR報價最新來到每公噸2580美元,較5月初每噸2765美元下跌185美元,跌幅為6.6%。

 ◎塑料:
 擔憂市場供給過剩,亞洲乙烯現貨報價急跌,並跌破每公噸千元大關,累計兩周來跌逾20%;市場傳出新加坡SHELL及泰國MOC開出乙烯新產能,故陸續採取降價求售,致乙烯報價一路下跌,目前報價來到每公噸960美元左右,使得下游產品也同步回跌,其中PE相關產品兩周來跌幅由3%至9.3%不等,而國內6月PE和PVC內銷報價,也下跌每公斤2~3.6元不等;業者表示,乙烯行情持續大跌,若無出現止跌情況,恐連帶牽連下游衍生產品價格進一步走軟。

 另外,丙烯原料也出現回跌,上周每公噸跌價每公噸125美元,至1055美元,單周跌幅10.6%,近兩周跌幅逾19%,同樣引發下游的PP行情下跌,6月份內銷報價每公斤跌1元,而丙酮、苯酚等產品價格也回檔。

 (新聞來源:商品行情網www.info-cip.com)

中石化:CPL未來3年價格看好

中央社 (2010-06-07 19:50)

尼龍、輪胎布的原料CPL近期報價走俏,台灣唯一的CPL大廠中石化(1314)表示,CPL的供給量不多但需求卻攀升,在供不應求的支撐下,未來3至5年的價格「很樂觀」。

中石化總經理蔡錫津表示,己內醯胺(CPL)近年供給量除了中石化預計在明年底增加12萬噸之外,中國大陸雖有產能新增計畫,但因CPL製程技術複雜,始終只聞樓梯響,3年內的不確定因素很高。

蔡錫津說,尼龍的原料有CPL及聚酯(Polyester)2種,CPL價格比Polyester貴1倍以上,但有不怕水的特性。

他說,現在包括中國大陸在內亞洲地區中產階級增加,用得起由較貴的CPL做成的尼龍衣服;大陸的汽車成長力道強勁,CPL是汽車輪胎布的原料,屬於消耗品,有助帶動CPL的需求量。

蔡錫津認為,在供給少但需求增加的情況下,CPL未來3至5年的價格「很樂觀」,但中石化董事長馮亨補充說,CPL的需求可以維持平穩,不會有爆炸性的成長。

中石化預計明年底增加12萬噸的CPL,其中10萬噸由苗栗頭份廠供應,剩餘2萬噸由高雄小港廠供應。另一產品丙烯「月青」(AN),則預計擴產至23萬噸,計畫在明、後年投產。

既然CPL未來3至5年價格「很樂觀」,對於中石化的獲利表現,馮亨不願多談,只說「今年毛利率會與去年下半年相當」。

中石化的轉投資是信昌化(4725)、台灣志氯化學,馮亨表示,中石化本業表現不錯,業外投資也不錯。除了台灣市場之外,中石化也會到大陸設廠,不排除投資CPL、AN以外產品,朝多角化發展。

AN穩住價格 台塑鬆口氣

【經濟日報╱記者邱展光/台北報導】2010.06.11 04:00 am

四大化纖原料中,因需求旺季接近尾聲,行情直轉急下,只有丙烯(AN)勉強守住,生產廠商是台塑(1301)、中石化(1314)獲利受衝擊程度可望減緩。

依目前四大化纖原料的售價,只有己內醯胺(CPL)與AN兩項產品能仍維持獲利。法人說,化纖類股於昨(10)日兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)即將簽署的題材發酵下,表現一片紅通通,台塑、中石化股價分別上漲0.4元、0.35元。

聚酯旺季將結束,四大化纖原料的乙二醇(EG)、純對苯二甲酸需求不若先前強勁,加上庫存水位過高,進入第二季後,行情連七周下挫。其中,EG更跌破每公噸700美元心理關卡,跌至2008 年底、2009年初的價位。

法人表示,以目前乙烯現貨價格每公噸920美元計算,EG光是原料成本即達693美元,加上人事、能源費用,生產成本每公噸需725美元,目前EG報價每公噸695美元,即使是垂直整合廠的南亞(1303),都無法獲利。

法人預估,EG售價連翻下挫,東聯(1710)、中纖(1718)第二季獲利將低於首季;下半年又有EG新增產能逐步開出,在供過於求壓力下,報價不易脫離目前弱勢表現,獲利展望不佳,下半年獲利恐低於上半年。

聚酯纖維的主要原料是,EG與純對苯二甲酸(PTA);因此,需求與行情與EG關係非常密切。隨著原料重挫,PTA行情早已跌破每公噸900美元關卡,目前售價幾乎與原料對二甲苯(PX)不相上下了。中美和、台化(1326)、亞東石化、東展興業瀕臨損益平衡邊緣。

即使居高價、高獲利的CPL需求與行情,因大陸尼龍絲、尼龍切片需求旺季已近尾聲,價格下滑至每公噸2,550美元,與月前的每公噸2,750美元,跌幅已達7.2%。

信昌化5月營收創新高,Q2獲利可望續攀新高

精實新聞 2010-06-07 10:25:01 記者 陳怡潔 報導

酚系列化工大廠信昌化(4725)表示,因尼龍需求旺,環己酮的價、量續強,丙二酚也受惠下游PCB、光碟片的需求而持續成長,帶動5月營收較上月成長7.4%至22.62億元,創單月歷史新高。信昌化首季EPS創下1.75元的新高,法人預估,信昌化第二季營收將有1至2成的成長,獲利也可望續攀新高。

內部表示,下游為紡纖原料CPL的環己酮,因大陸尼龍需求成長快速,和日本同業關廠,需求旺盛加上缺料,令環己酮第二季價、量續強。下游應用在光碟片、印刷電路板的丙二酚,受惠電子業的熱絡市況,第二季丙二酚價、量上漲,公司也進一步提高丙二酚產量。環己酮與丙二酚延續首季的好表現,帶動5月營收創下歷史單月新高

信昌化5月營收22.62億元,較4月的21.06億元成長7.4%,再創單月歷史新高。第一季營收為55.9億元,較上季成長31%,較上年同期大幅成長138%,稅後淨利為4.59億元,優於去年全年的4.57億元,首季EPS為1.57元。因尼龍市場需求持續暢旺,環己酮今年以來供不應求,丙二酚、酚、丙酮等其餘產品表現亦佳,信昌化今年完成的酚擴廠、馬林酐建廠兩大投資案,搭上景氣復甦的列車,使信昌化首季獲利創下單季歷史新高。

法人預估,雖然近日塑化產品報價走弱,但在尼龍、PCB、光碟片等下游需求支撐下,環己酮與丙二酚的價格都料有撐,而原料苯價的亞洲報價,從5月均價約每噸950美元,隨原油價格回跌至目前每噸800美元附近,也有利信昌化獲利。預估信昌化第二季營收將有1至2成的成長,獲利也可望續攀新高,EPS有機會上看2元。

中石化 業內外兩得意

【經濟日報╱記者丁威/台北報導】 2010.06.08 04:05 am

馮亨認為,CPL過去兩次攻上每公噸2,700美元後都未能站穩,預期下半年CPL漲勢將會暫歇,且價格會稍為疲軟,但整體而言,利潤仍可維持,今年中石化本業、業外「都會很不錯!」

中石化總經理蔡錫津補充說明,從CPL產業基本面分析,未來三年,除了中石化的12 萬公噸新擴增產能將在明年底試車開出外,亞洲都暫時沒有明確的新增產能計畫,從供給面看,不管台灣、大陸都約有40%的缺口,吃緊狀況短期內不會改變。

至於需求面,蔡錫津認為,過去CPL下游尼龍用製品,售價較貴,先進國家使用比率較高,CPL下游約30%至35%用於工程塑膠、輕工業等產業,另外65%至70%用於衣著類,隨著中國中產階級興起,工業用使用的比率有成長空間,在供給面無新增產能、需求面持續成長下,產業趨勢不悲觀。

中石化為國內唯一生產CPL的石化廠,年產能約28萬公噸,CPL為尼龍粒的主要原料,另外壓克力上游原料AN(丙烯)年產能18.5至19萬公噸;去年第二季開始,隨著大陸對尼龍需求大增,帶動下游尼龍報價衝高,CPL谷底反彈,連續四季賺錢,今年首季也繳出稅後純益7.38億元,每股稅後純益0.41元。

馮亨說,為掌握這波產業景氣及競爭力,CPL苗栗頭份廠、及小港廠都會擴充,兩廠合計年產能將由28萬公噸擴增到40萬公噸,預計2013年正式開出;AN也再擴充4萬公噸。

法人分析,從營收結構觀察,中石化預期第二季表現依舊可亮眼;不過,近期CPL在原油價格回檔,歐債風暴襲擊下,下游承受力不足,買盤轉趨觀望,遠東區現貨價從每公噸2,750美元後回測,最新每公噸報價已跌破2,600美元,約在2,580美元。

不過中石化內部預期,只要全球經濟沒有二次衰退,由於CPL供需沒有平衡,估計下半年PL價格應會在2,500至2,700美元盤整,崩跌空間不大。

法人預估,本季中石化CPL和上游原料苯的價差可維持在每公噸1,700美元水準,今年除本業CPL、AN狀況好,轉投資持股36.37%的信昌化(4725)也成為小金雞,全年有機會挑戰2007年稅後純益28億元的機會,再創歷史新高,每股稅後純益有挑戰1.8元的實力。

2010年6月10日

[塑膠知識] 結晶性和非結晶性塑料


#Crystallinity 結晶性

表示高分子中 crystalline region 和 amorphous content 的比例,它影響高分子的性質包括 Hardness,Modulus,Tensile,Stiffness,Crease,Melting Point。


上圖左邊是amorphous和crystalline的比較,amorphous排列鬆散,crystalline則是很整齊..
上圖右邊是三種熱塑性塑料,根據結晶度的不同,可以分為不定形(amorphous)聚合物、半結晶(semi-crystalline)聚合物和結晶(liquid crystalline)聚合物。




上圖表示"兩相結構模型" (2 phase model),此模型表示高分子只能部份結晶,含有 crystalline及amorphous區,排列的很整齊的是 crystalline region,其他的部份則是 amorphous region。

#DIFFERENTIAL SCANNING CALORIMETRY (DSC , 調幅式示差熱分析儀)
可以用來測量分子的結晶度,以定溫速率下加熱或冷卻,或恆溫測定期熱焓量的變化,以能量差的函數型式連續記錄。利用熱分析圖譜的吸熱或放熱帶,推測樣品性質。
下圖為寶特瓶樣品的DSC


#半結晶性塑膠 / 非結晶性塑膠

結晶性對塑膠性質的影響

1.光學性質
"結晶性高"感覺應該比較透明,因為看到"晶"這個字就讓人有水亮亮的感覺,但是其實結晶性高的塑膠因為排列較整齊,光的折射率較大,反而呈現不透明或是半透明的外觀。而非結晶性的材料,光透率反而較高。
例如我們最常利用其光學特性的材料"PMMA(壓克力)"以及"PC"都是非結晶性的材料。

測量透明度的方法是 ASTM D1003,原理是把樣品放在白旘光源下,看有多少比例的光線能通過樣品 (對照組為沒有擺樣品時的的光線量),測出來的值稱 Transmittance, Opacity = 1 / Transmittance, Optical Density = Common Logarithm (Opacity)。



全光線透光率%
===========================
玻璃------91
LDPE-----57
HDPE-----40
PS--------92
HIPS-----75
AS--------88
PP--------90
PC--------91
PMMA----92

2.機械性質

結晶性高
-> 密度高
-> 低溫下易脆
-> 耐衝擊性較低


2010年6月9日

台塑四寶5月營收淡 僅台塑化爭氣

20100603 22:49:21
(中央社記者趙曉慧台北 3日電)台塑四寶今天公布 5月份營收,只有台塑化因結束 4月歲修而較上月成長,台塑、南亞、台化皆因石化原料走跌而小幅衰退。

台塑化 5月營收達新台幣 726.74億元,較 4月的687.82億元成長逾5.6%。台塑 5月營收達169.18億元,較 4月的183.72億元衰退約 7.9%。

南亞 5月營收達 185.15億元,較 4月的 188.76億元衰退約 1.9%。台化 5月營收達 251.30億元,較 4月的253.80億元衰退約 0.9%。990603

大陸家電換新 塑化股受惠

中央社 (2010-06-04 11:31)

(中央社記者趙曉慧台北2010年6月4日電)中國大陸「家電以舊換新」的政策將延續到明年年底,與家電零件相關的石化原料可望因此受惠。

中國大陸決定延長實施「家電以舊換新」政策到明年底,實施地點還將擴及28省市,估計將消費逾人民幣1500億元,有利於彩電、冰箱、洗衣機、冷氣機、電腦等產業。

由於家電的零件、外殼,多來自聚碳酸酯(PC)、ABS樹脂、聚苯乙烯(PS)等石化族群原料,因此這一波中國大陸家電舊換新的商機,台灣的石塑化廠商可望受惠。

包括台塑四寶、國喬(1312)、台聚集團、台苯(1310)等,今天盤中股價都微幅上漲。

熱門股-國喬 ABS跌緩 買盤低接

2010-06-04 工商時報 【彭暄貽】

國喬(1312)因ABS、PS現貨報價跌幅趨緩,加上大陸家電舊換新延長至明年底,吸引逢低承接買盤進駐,昨(3)日以12元收紅,成交張數5,798張,比前一交易日增加1倍之多。

國喬股價壓力為15.54元,11.63元價格有支撐。外資昨日買超344張;近五日買超2,145張。

ABS應用以電腦資訊及家電為主,約60%至70%。大陸家電舊換新延長至明年底,試點擴大至28省市,增添ABS、PS現貨報價止穩回溫能量。

帝斯曼工程塑料與三菱化學達成業務交換協議

來源:電子工程專輯 台灣發布者:eettaiwan
時間:2010年6月08日

帝斯曼工程塑料(DSM Engineering Plastics,荷蘭皇家帝斯曼集團下屬的致力於生命科學和材料科學領域的商業集團),日前正式宣布完成對三菱化學Novamid聚酰胺業務的收購,作為交換,三菱化學也同時收購了帝斯曼的Xantar聚碳酸酯業務。

上述兩家公司於2010年2月已就此業務交換簽訂合約,交換的兩個業務單位年銷售額均在9,000萬歐元左右。 雙方同意不會公開其他財務細節。 對兩家公司而言,透過本次業務交換,雙方新增加的業務與各自的戰略發展是非常切合的,帝斯曼工程塑料可進一步鞏固其聚酰胺工程塑料生產商的地位,同時又能在日本這一由創新和可持續性發展推動企業成長的重要市場擴展其市場地位。

一批帝斯曼聚碳酸酯業務部門的核心員工被調入三菱化學,同時,一定數量的三菱化學員工也被調入帝斯曼。 根據協議,三菱化學還將在位於荷蘭格林的切梅洛特-加龍省研發園區專門設立一個研發部門。

帝斯曼工程塑料是全球領先的熱塑性工程塑料供貨商之一,產品適用於電氣設備、電子設備、汽車、絕緣性包裝薄膜以及各類機械和射出產品等領域。 其產品組合包括Akulon單6和雙6聚酰胺、Arnitel熱塑性彈性體、Arnite PBT和PET聚酯、Yparex可擠出式粘結樹脂和Stanyl 46耐高溫聚酰胺。 最近該公司還推出新型聚合物Stanyl ForTii,以及EcoPaXX高性能生物基聚酰胺。 該公司09年營收6.48億歐元,全球僱員總數達1600人。

DSM and MCC complete exchange polycarbonate and polyamide businesses
HEERLEN, NETHERLANDS -- 06/01/10 --
Press release-pdf: http://hugin.info/130663/R/1420306/369955.pdf

DSM Engineering Plastics, a business group of the Netherlands-based Life Sciences and Materials Sciences company Royal DSM N.V., today announces that it has completed the acquisition of Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation's (MCC) Novamid® polyamide business in exchange for DSM's Xantar® polycarbonate business.

In February 2010 both companies signed the contracts for the swap. Both businesses have an annual net sales level of approximately EUR 90 million each. The parties have agreed not to disclose other financial details.

For both companies the businesses they will add to their portfolios as a result of the swap of activities provide a strong strategic fit. DSM Engineering Plastics is able to further reinforce its position as one of the globally leading producers of polyamide engineering plastics and expand its position in Japan, an important market where innovation and sustainability are driving growth.

A number of key employees of DSM's polycarbonate business are transferred to MCC. A number of employees of MCC are seconded to DSM. It is also envisaged that MCC will establish an R&D unit at the Chemelot Research and Technology campus in Geleen (Netherlands).


DSM Engineering Plastics

DSM Engineering Plastics is one of the world's leading suppliers of quality engineering thermoplastics providing customer value through sustainable solutions that reflect the DSM People, Planet and Profit strategy. DSM Engineering Plastics delivers innovative opportunities for customers who design or produce electrical applications, electronic equipment, cars, barrier packaging films as well as many mechanical and extrusion applications. These markets are served with a broad portfolio of high performance materials including Akulon® 6 and 66 polyamides, Arnitel® TPC, Arnite® PBT and PET polyesters, Yparex® extrudable adhesive resins, and Stanyl® high heat 46 polyamides. Most recently, DSM Engineering Plastics has introduced the first new polymer of the 21st century: Stanyl® ForTii™ and EcoPaXX™, a bio-based, high performance engineering plastic. DSM Engineering Plastics had sales in 2009 of EUR 648 million with 1600 employees employed worldwide.


DSM - the Life Sciences and Materials Sciences Company

Royal DSM N.V. creates solutions that nourish, protect and improve performance. Its end markets include human and animal nutrition and health, personal care, pharmaceuticals, automotive, coatings and paint, electrical and electronics, life protection and housing. DSM manages its business with a focus on the triple bottom line of economic performance, environmental quality and social responsibility, which it pursues simultaneously and in parallel. DSM has annual net sales of about EUR 8 billion and employs some 22,700 people worldwide. The company is headquartered in the Netherlands, with locations on five continents.

2010年6月5日

尼龍、加工絲業 如洗三溫暖

2010-05-30 工商時報 【記者龔俊榮/台北報導】

尼龍與加工絲原料前一陣子出現飆漲,包括力鵬(1447)、集盛(1455)、力麗(1444)、宜進(1457)等上下游紡纖公司,都因市況轉佳,銷售不錯,首季獲利也都繳出亮麗的成績單;最近原物料回跌,加上買氣觀望,估計加工絲的價格可能回跌,同時尼龍粒的出貨也多少受到CPL價格居高不下的衝擊,暫時轉趨保守。

 國內兩大尼龍粒大廠力鵬與集盛,今年第1季的營收表現不差,同時獲利也嗄嗄叫,力鵬首季EPS0.64元,集盛EPS0.53元,雙雙都表現亮眼。最近兩岸正在洽簽ECFA協議,對尼龍粒廠商而言,一旦納入早期清單後,ECFA的效應將在下半年發酵。

 力鵬為因應ECFA也已做好萬全準備,已在3月底完成去瓶頸工程,日產能從原先800噸提升至1,100噸,希望有機會成為ECFA概念股。

 不過,最近尼龍粒的原物料CPL,現貨價一度曾飆漲至每噸2,800美元,高得離譜,讓尼龍粒廠商買不下手,同時下游廠商也暫時縮手買盤,目前CPL已下滑至每噸2,600美元,惟尼龍粒廠商最近正在等著6月分CPL合約價是否有回跌的空間,然後再決定下一步接單的售價。

 加工絲方面,今年隨著景氣的回溫,國內5大加工絲業者包括力麗、集盛、宜進、宏益與聯發等公司,首季獲利都拉長紅,其中宜進與聯發更是比前1季表現,有如三級跳。

 加工絲今年受惠景氣好轉,配合原物料的揚升,從2月起調漲後,3月再漲,4月維持平盤,5月也跟著原物反映價格;不過,PTA與EG價格也一度漲過頭,差點讓加工絲廠商受不了。

 最近原物料開始回跌,加上時序進入6月淡季,一般估計,加工絲報價在6月可能會維持平盤,甚至有下修的空間,這對加工絲第2季的獲利多少將有影響。

轉投資進補 中石化Q2獲利佳

2010-05-29 工商時報 【記者彭暄貽/台北報導】

 中石化(1314)受惠AN、CPL行情活絡,本業收益步步走堅。尤其,中石化轉投資的信昌化(4725)、台灣志氯化學等投資收益將在半年報進行認列,烘托第2季獲利動能大進。中石化持有信昌化36.37%股權,信昌化首季EPS為1.57元,第2季法人推估單季EPS將挑戰2元,連帶牽動中石化行情看俏。

 雖然亞洲AN廠商陸續歲修完成,且近期油價大跌,所幸中石化旗下AN、CPL因下游尼龍、巧克力棉、ABS強勁需求帶動,上游苯、丙烯價格走跌擴大利差下,第2季本業獲利持穩推進。

 中石化表示,4月因有2個廠歲修停機影響,單月營收月減19.15%。5月產能回復正常運作,配合目前利差不錯,半年一次的轉投資收益在本季認列,第2季獲利應該會比第1季好。

 大陸尼龍市場成長快速,價格也向上,環己酮為尼龍絲的原料,也受帶動需求強勁,日本一家公司3月關廠,減少11萬噸的酚、10萬噸的CPL供給,環己酮供需吃緊,信昌化首季獲利豐收,第2季獲利維持高檔。

 中石化首季EPS為0.41元,法人指出,亞洲歲修季結束,加上近期油價下滑,AN報價回跌機率大,產品利差隨之縮小。惟AN利差可望維持900美元水準,加上CPL因丙烯走跌而利差拉大,配合業外溢助,推估Q2獲利季增20%至30%。

尼龍粒回檔 力鵬Q4恢復動能

2010-05-29 17:06:41 中央社記者韋樞台北2010年5月29日電


由於國際苯價下跌,相關下游產品跟著跌價,法人估計,第3季尼龍粒價格可能落在每噸2500到2700美元間,台灣尼龍粒最大廠力鵬 (1447)第3季營收可能清淡,第4季恢復暢旺。

近期受到歐洲債信危機影響,油價下跌,相關紡織上游原料如己內醯胺 (CPL)、乙二醇 (EG)及純對苯二甲酸 (PTA)價格均回檔。

法人表示,年初至今亞洲苯價回檔幅度已超過25% ,中國中石化公司5月更6度調降苯價,調幅19.23%,在原料大幅回檔下,使得CPL價格修正壓力大增。

今年尼龍粒在上游的 CPL價格帶動下,報價最高曾站上每噸3000美元,目前亞洲苯價已跌破每噸800美元,預期將帶動CPL及尼龍粒價格回檔;第3季CPL價格將回到2200到2400美元,尼龍粒價格則在2500美元到2700美元間。

法人指出,由於過去尼龍價格一路高漲,下游不易轉嫁,近期又出現原料價格回檔,廠商呈觀望心態,預估力鵬 5月以後營收動能將減緩,第3季進入產業淡季,價量同步回落下,相對營收及獲利處於全年低檔。

不過9月後進入產業旺季,價格方面也因第3季已適度回檔,有助刺激旺季需求提升,同時力鵬產能去瓶頸化早已完成,預估每個月出貨量可維持2.4萬噸以上。

加州禁用塑膠袋? 本周決定

記者陳慈暉綜合報導 June 03, 2010 12:00 AM
世界新聞網-洛杉磯

加州議會本周將進行超市、便利商店及零售店禁用塑膠袋及紙袋法案的討論、表決,法案若過關,加州將成為全美第一個禁用塑膠袋及紙袋的州。此法案於2012年1月1日起生效附帶法規定,日後消費者至賣場若未帶購物袋,須向商家購買可重複使用的購物袋,或為所購買的紙袋多付五分錢,以分擔至少40%的回收處理成本。
在加州反塑膠袋的聲浪中,南加部分華資塑膠袋製造商開始評估「生物可分解塑膠袋」(Biodegradable Carrier Bag),計畫投入這種兼顧環保及經濟實用的「綠色塑膠袋」。

華資亞細亞塑膠公司負責人吳明權表示,南加部分零售商店想為環保盡一份分心力,改用紙袋作為顧客的消費購物袋,其實紙袋不但成本高,生產紙袋需要砍更多樹木,且生產過程造成的空氣污染更高,並不見得環保,歐洲及亞洲許多國家都開始鼓勵製造及使用生物可分解塑膠袋,讓使用者保有使用塑膠袋的便利性,也不會造成環境傷害。

製造生物可分解塑膠袋的生分解性塑膠,其主要材料是澱粉、聚乳酸及纖維蛋白質,其內容物不含傳統塑膠成分,也不具任何化學毒性,在製造與一般用途和傳統塑膠袋無異,且完全不會造成環保後遺症。

大華超市曾在南加部分分店試用可分解的塑膠袋及餐盒,不過,該公司公關經理曹其崢表示,該公司一直有心導入可分解塑膠購物袋,但綠色塑膠袋的採購成本,是不可分解塑膠袋的四倍,超市每天使用塑膠袋數量龐大,經評估後決定暫緩施行,但中餐熱食部仍使用可分解的餐盒。

曹其崢說,加州經過多年的禁用塑膠立法討論,無形中消費者也逐漸瞭解塑膠袋對環保造成的負擔,開始自備購物袋或攜帶重複使用的塑膠袋至賣場。

慈濟東區公關方碧霞強調,布質、不織布環保袋對環境影響最小,不織布較不耐清洗,壽命也有限,較適合放不易弄髒袋子的物品,而布質環保袋,尤其是帆布材質,壽命至少在一年以上,且經久耐洗,承重性也較佳。

2010年6月2日

原料產品雙跌 塑化愁上心頭

【聯合晚報╱記者吳文淵/台北報導】 2010.05.30 03:06 pm

石化基本原料和中間原料行情近期明顯下跌,國內多家投顧的研究報告,對塑化相關產業的看法轉趨保守,其中以乙烯系列的產品最可慮。

國際原油價格下跌,輕油裂解工場的進料石油腦最近也大幅回檔,抵半年多來的低點,而石化基本原料乙烯、丙烯及苯等也紛創半年來的新低,永豐投顧認為,這主要反映歐洲債信引發的需求面疑慮。永豐指出,觀察乙烯、丙烯及苯等基本原料近月崩跌原因在於:一、油價自4月底來急跌約兩成;二、歐債危機與中國調控,導致整體需求面急縮;三、伊朗於現貨市場供給增加與後續歲修復工預期。

凱基投顧也指出,中國庫存去化從農曆年後開始,第二季到第三季仍將持續對亞洲乙烯市場產生壓力。再者,供給面也有壓力,主要是在新加皮、卡達、中國的多座輕裂場近期已達商業運轉進程、將陸續投產,這對市場的衝擊,將於近期益趨明顯,因此預期乙烯價格將於未來數月仍呈下跌趨勢。

富邦投顧研究報告認為,乙烯下半年供給增加,目前行情下滑只是下修的開始,但芳香烴產品價格將會逐漸趨穩並重新獲得支撐。衍生的中間原料也大體有類似的走勢,例如,PE(聚乙烯)、EG(乙二醇)受累於乙烯價格的走軟,同時本身的產能也增加,報價可能繼續下修。而以芳香烴為主要原料的PTA(純對苯二甲酸)、ABS(丙烯月青/丁二烯/苯乙烯共聚物),因供需情況良好,預計高價存貨去化後,下半年需求將升溫,近期價格下跌是受到上游的原油等下挫的影響,而非基本面的惡化。

其他中間料方面,永豐投顧指出,近期以SM(苯乙烯單體) 報價跌勢最兇;AN (丙烯月青)與CPL(乙內醯胺)因處歲修高峰,近期報價最穩,惟後續需留意CPL因短期需求轉弱補跌壓力。

上游基本原料跌價,中間原料業者成本減輕,但本身產品售價也下跌,永豐投顧即進一步分析其間的利差變化。隨著基本原料回檔,衍生物利差略為恢復,並以EVA(乙烯/醋酸乙烯酯)、 AN及CPL利差較佳,HDPE(高密度聚乙烯)、LLDPE(線性低密度聚乙烯)、SM、PP(聚丙烯)、PS(聚苯乙烯) 與ABS利差亦有改善。

儘管近期石化上中游原料下跌,產業景氣成長趨緩,但富邦投顧也指出,這尚不致於讓塑化業產生虧損,主要原因包括業者有較佳的存貨管理,石油價格下檔支撐仍強,且大陸經濟持續成長。

【2010/05/30 聯合晚報】

《塑膠股》AN、CPL需求強、轉投資收益認列,中石化Q2獲利看俏

2010-05-27 【時報記者何美如台北報導】

儘管亞洲AN廠商陸續歲修完成,且近期油價大跌,然中石化(1314)主要產品AN、CPL在下游尼龍、巧克力棉、ABS強勁需求帶動,上游苯、丙烯價格走跌擴大利差下,第二季本業獲利看俏,加上信昌化轉投資獲利認列,第二季獲利可望優於首季。

中石化4月營收收29.79 億元,較上月衰退19.15%,中石化表示,主要是4月有二個廠歲修停機影響,5月已經正常運作,營收將回溫。對於第二季獲利表現,中石化表示,目前利差不錯,半年一次的轉投資收益在本季認列,第二季獲利應該會比第一季好,中石化首季EPS為0.41元。

對於第三季,中石化表示,近期原油價格跌勢很凶,歐元區發生債信危機,何時發酵?發酵時間多長?沒人知道,北韓與南韓又情勢緊張,對於價格、需求影響很難判斷。2008年那次的金融風暴,大家都嚇到了,近期也有感受到觀望氣氛。

法人表示,亞洲AN 廠商歲修產能已於4月陸續開出,加上近期油價下滑,AN報價回跌機率大,並將縮小產品利差,然預估在巧克力棉、ABS需求支撐下,第二季利差可望維持在900美元的水準,加上CPL因丙烯走跌而利差拉大,第二季本業獲利將優於首季。此外,本季將認列信昌化(4725)、台灣志氯化學等轉投資獲利,中石化持有信昌化36.37%的股權,信昌化上半年獲利亮眼,對獲利挹注也是一大進補。